League Two · Regular Season - 12
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Whaddon Road, Cheltenham
Cheltenham host Fleetwood Town on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cheltenham 38%, draw 29%, Fleetwood Town 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cheltenham €192K, Fleetwood Town €192K.
- Home advantage makes Cheltenham the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Cheltenham's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cheltenham goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Cheltenham 1584 · Fleetwood Town 1620
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cheltenham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1657
Fleetwood Town · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1631
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cheltenham
8th in League Two · 15 pts from 11
- 17 OctLOldham England League Two1538
- 13 OctDTottenham Hotspur U21 England EFL Trophy1585
- 10 OctLSalford City England League Two1560
- 3 OctLAccrington ST England League Two1627
- 26 SepWChesterfield England League Two1588
Fleetwood Town
12th in League Two · 14 pts from 11
- 17 OctWRotherham England League Two1612
- 10 OctDWalsall England League Two1613
- 6 OctWBarnsley England EFL Trophy1677
- 3 OctLSalford City England League Two1624
- 26 SepLRochdale England League Two1588
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 15 /11 | 59.0 | <1% | 4% | 10% | 14th |
| Fleetwood Town | 14 /11 | 61.3 | <1% | 8% | 5% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: low-block · low-volume
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cheltenham: direct (how Stephen John Cotterill plays) · Fleetwood Town: balanced profile (how Matthew Lawlor plays)