League Two · Regular Season - 16
Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Whaddon Road, Cheltenham
Cheltenham host Bristol Rovers on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cheltenham 37%, draw 29%, Bristol Rovers 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cheltenham €192K, Bristol Rovers €247K.
- Home advantage makes Cheltenham the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Cheltenham's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cheltenham goals first.
- 1–114%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- 1–08%
- 0–17%
- 0–07%
- Other scores48%
Team Elo: Cheltenham 1604 · Bristol Rovers 1655
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cheltenham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1656
Bristol Rovers · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1583
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cheltenham
5th in League Two · 21 pts from 14
- 10 NovLOxford United England EFL Trophy1730
- 7 NovWFC Halifax Town England FA Cup1594
- 31 OctLTranmere England League Two1609
- 24 OctWNewport County England League Two1568
- 20 OctWFleetwood Town England League Two1515
Bristol Rovers
17th in League Two · 16 pts from 14
- 10 NovDReading England EFL Trophy1613
- 6 NovWCambridge United England FA Cup1607
- 31 OctLFleetwood Town England League Two1671
- 24 OctDSwindon Town England League Two1679
- 20 OctLSalford City England League Two1690
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 21 /14 | 60.8 | <1% | 6% | 7% | 14th |
| Bristol Rovers | 16 /14 | 60.4 | 0% | 6% | 8% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cheltenham: direct (how S. Cotterill plays) · Bristol Rovers: balanced profile (how Stephen Evans plays)