Premier League · Regular Season - 9
Chelsea vs Manchester United
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UTC · Stamford Bridge, London
Chelsea host Manchester United on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chelsea 44%, draw 28%, Manchester United 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chelsea €43.4M, Manchester United €35.7M.
- Manchester United's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chelsea goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.6 pts
Team Elo: Chelsea 2391 · Manchester United 2361
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chelsea · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2447
Manchester United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2408
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chelsea
4th in Premier League · 13 pts from 7
- 17 OctWEverton Premier League2382
- 10 OctWBournemouth Premier League2347
- 18 SepLBrentford Premier League2327
- 12 SepDHull City Premier League2404
- 9 SepWLeeds England League Cup2285
Manchester United
13th in Premier League · 7 pts from 7
- 18 OctDLeeds Premier League2376
- 13 OctLAtletico Madrid UEFA Champions League2365
- 10 OctDTottenham Premier League2404
- 20 SepDFulham Premier League2414
- 16 SepLBrighton England League Cup2242
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 13 /7 | 62.1 | <1% | 47% | 0% | 3rd |
| Manchester United | 7 /7 | 53.3 | 0% | 10% | 1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chelsea: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Xabier Alonso Olano plays) · Manchester United: creative (how Michael Carrick plays)