Premier League · Regular Season - 11
Chelsea vs Leeds
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Stamford Bridge, London
Chelsea host Leeds on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chelsea 46%, draw 28%, Leeds 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chelsea €35.8M, Leeds €20.0M.
- Style contrast in discipline (Premier League): Chelsea rank #19 of 20, Leeds #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chelsea goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–19%
- 1–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–07%
- 1–27%
- Other scores47%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–1expected 3.6 pts
Team Elo: Chelsea 2360 · Leeds 2307
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chelsea · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2526
Leeds · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2371
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chelsea
5th in Premier League · 16 pts from 10
- 8 NovLSunderland Premier League2333
- 31 OctWManchester United Premier League2351
- 28 OctDLiverpool England League Cup2322
- 24 OctLTottenham Premier League2372
- 17 OctWEverton Premier League2374
Leeds
9th in Premier League · 14 pts from 10
- 7 NovWTottenham Premier League2296
- 31 OctLBournemouth Premier League2334
- 25 OctDSunderland Premier League2326
- 18 OctDManchester United Premier League2331
- 10 OctLArsenal Premier League2337
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 16 /10 | 58.2 | 0% | 22% | 0% | 5th |
| Leeds | 14 /10 | 53.2 | 0% | 6% | 1% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chelsea: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Xabi Alonso plays) · Leeds: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Daniel Farke plays)