Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 10
Chaves vs Penafiel
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Estadio Municipal de Chaves, Chaves
Chaves host Penafiel on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Segunda Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chaves 43%, draw 28%, Penafiel 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chaves €272K, Penafiel €285K.
- Style contrast in discipline (Segunda Liga): Chaves rank #14 of 14, Penafiel #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chaves goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Chaves 1505 · Penafiel 1490
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chaves · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.9 (Below) · Elo 1538
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chaves
17th in Segunda Liga · 5 pts from 7
- 11 OctDLusitânia Lourosa Liga Portugal 21506
- 4 OctLFarense Liga Portugal 21509
- 30 AugLFelgueiras 1932 Liga Portugal 21444
- 8 AugLAcademica Liga Portugal 21419
- 15 MayWMaritimo Liga Portugal 21457
Penafiel
4th in Segunda Liga · 13 pts from 7
- 9 OctLAVS Liga Portugal 21518
- 12 SepWFelgueiras 1932 Liga Portugal 21456
- 5 SepWAcademica Liga Portugal 21481
- 30 AugWFC Porto B Liga Portugal 21477
- 8 AugLPortimonense Liga Portugal 21497
Season outlook
From the Segunda Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves | 5 /7 | 41.5 | <1% | 4% | 26% | 16th |
| Penafiel | 13 /7 | 48.1 | 3% | 19% | 5% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chaves: direct (how Vitor Martins plays) · Penafiel: balanced profile (how José Manuel Aira plays)