Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 28
Charlotte 3–2 FC Dallas
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
CharlotteTeam 1990
FC DallasTeam 1949Match story
Charlotte · draw · FC DallasBefore kick-off: 49% · 26% · 25%
Last reading, 90+7': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Idan Toklomati Jorno 70', 90+2'
- Harry Toffolo 74'
- Logan Farrington 22'
- Petar Musa 64'
We gave Charlotte 49% to win: they did.
- 22'Logan Farrington 1958 −15* assist Herman Johansson 1978 −13*
FC Dallas:Logan Farrington 1958 −15* assist Herman Johansson 1978 −13* - 45'Sebastien Ibeagha 1865 −14* for Lalas Abubakar 1737 −11*
FC Dallas:Sebastien Ibeagha 1865 −14* for Lalas Abubakar 1737 −11* - 60'Petar Musa 1959 −4 for Logan Farrington 1958 −15*
FC Dallas:Petar Musa 1959 −4 for Logan Farrington 1958 −15* - 60'Santiago Moreno 1998 −10* for Patrickson Delgado 1849 −8*
FC Dallas:Santiago Moreno 1998 −10* for Patrickson Delgado 1849 −8* - Harry Toffolo 1947 +6* for David Schnegg 1970 +3*60'
Charlotte:Harry Toffolo 1947 +6* for David Schnegg 1970 +3* - Luca De La Torre 1994 −4* for Brandt Bronico 1948 +1*60'
Charlotte:Luca De La Torre 1994 −4* for Brandt Bronico 1948 +1* - 64'Petar Musa 1959 −4 assist Santiago Moreno 1998 −10*
FC Dallas:Petar Musa 1959 −4 assist Santiago Moreno 1998 −10* - Will Cleary 1788 −1* for Nathan Byrne 1941 +1*69'
Charlotte:Will Cleary 1788 −1* for Nathan Byrne 1941 +1* - Rodolfo Aloko 1594 +15* for Liel Abada 2008 +1269'
Charlotte:Rodolfo Aloko 1594 +15* for Liel Abada 2008 +12 - Idan Toklomati Jorno 2059 +29* assist Allan Saint-Maximin 2125 0*70'
Charlotte:Idan Toklomati Jorno 2059 +29* assist Allan Saint-Maximin 2125 0* - Harry Toffolo 1947 +6* assist Idan Toklomati Jorno 2059 +29*74'
Charlotte:Harry Toffolo 1947 +6* assist Idan Toklomati Jorno 2059 +29* - 75'Bernard Kamungo 1976 −8* for Herman Johansson 1978 −13*
FC Dallas:Bernard Kamungo 1976 −8* for Herman Johansson 1978 −13* - 79'Osaze Urhoghide 1973 −13*
FC Dallas:Osaze Urhoghide 1973 −13* - 84'Daniel Job 1414 −8* for Joaquín Valiente Cioli 2011 −14*
FC Dallas:Daniel Job 1414 −8* for Joaquín Valiente Cioli 2011 −14* - Morrison Agyemang 1872 +15*86'
Charlotte:Morrison Agyemang 1872 +15* - Idan Toklomati Jorno 2059 +29* assist Pep Biel 2073 +25*90+2'
Charlotte:Idan Toklomati Jorno 2059 +29* assist Pep Biel 2073 +25* - Djibril Diani 1935 −9* for Allan Saint-Maximin 2125 0*90+3'
Charlotte:Djibril Diani 1935 −9* for Allan Saint-Maximin 2125 0*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 49% · 26% · 25%(Charlotte · draw · FC Dallas)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–2 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Charlotte €2.5M, FC Dallas €1.8M.
- Charlotte were without 1 expected starter: T. Ream (1927).
- FC Dallas were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Charlotte
5th in MLS · 43 pts from 27
- 26 SepLChicago Fire MLS1960
- 19 SepWDC United MLS1985
- 12 SepDFC Cincinnati MLS1983
- 9 SepWCF Montreal MLS1942
- 5 SepDHouston Dynamo MLS1970
FC Dallas
3rd in MLS · 47 pts from 27
- 27 SepWLos Angeles FC MLS1962
- 20 SepDAustin MLS1947
- 13 SepWPortland Timbers MLS1931
- 10 SepWMinnesota United FC MLS1901
- 6 SepWSporting Kansas City MLS1942
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | 43 /27 | 52.9 | 0% | 7% | 0% | 10th |
| FC Dallas | 47 /27 | 57.5 | <1% | 39% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Charlotte · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1951

FC Dallas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Average) · Elo 2034
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Charlotte: low-block (how Dean Smith plays) · FC Dallas: balanced profile (how Eric Quill plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.