Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 12
Charleroi vs St. Truiden
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Charleroi host St. Truiden on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Jupiler Pro League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Charleroi 39%, draw 29%, St. Truiden 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Charleroi €1.4M, St. Truiden €2.0M.
- Home advantage makes Charleroi the favourite here: it adds 4 points to their win chance.
- Charleroi's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Charleroi goals first.
- 1–114%
- 2–18%
- 1–08%
- 1–27%
- 0–17%
- 0–07%
- Other scores49%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl2–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Charleroi 1830 · St. Truiden 1834
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Charleroi · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1934
St. Truiden · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Good) · Elo 1926
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Charleroi
4th in Pro League · 27 pts from 11
- 7 NovWKVC Westerlo Belgium Pro League1737
- 1 NovWRAAL La Louvière Belgium Pro League1766
- 24 OctLAntwerp Belgium Pro League1849
- 11 OctWStandard Liege Belgium Pro League1831
- 19 SepWCercle Brugge Belgium Pro League1812
St. Truiden
12th in Pro League · 11 pts from 11
- 8 NovWZulte Waregem Belgium Pro League1832
- 5 NovDBrann UEFA Conference League1799
- 1 NovLOH Leuven Belgium Pro League1843
- 25 OctLClub Brugge KV Belgium Pro League1841
- 22 OctWFC Midtjylland UEFA Conference League1819
Season outlook
From the Jupiler Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | 27 /11 | 57.4 | 0% | 34% | 0% | 5th |
| St. Truiden | 11 /11 | 42.0 | 0% | 1% | 5% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Charleroi: balanced profile (how Mario Kohnen plays) · St. Truiden: possession-based (how F. De Meyer plays)