Serie A · Regular Season - 21
Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Arena Condá, Chapeco
Chapecoense-sc host Vasco DA Gama on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chapecoense-sc 26%, draw 28%, Vasco DA Gama 46%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chapecoense-sc €513K, Vasco DA Gama €4.3M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chapecoense-sc goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–28%
- 2–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Chapecoense-sc 1687 · Vasco DA Gama 1968
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chapecoense-sc · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1650
Vasco DA Gama · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Good) · Elo 1955
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chapecoense-sc
20th in Série A · 21 pts from 32
- 28 OctLRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A1656
- 24 OctWFluminense Brazil Serie A1670
- 17 OctLBotafogo Brazil Serie A1675
- 12 OctLAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A1679
- 7 OctLVitoria Brazil Serie A1693
Vasco DA Gama
13th in Série A · 38 pts from 32
- 1 NovLPalmeiras Brazil Copa do Brasil2006
- 29 OctLFlamengo Brazil Serie A1966
- 24 OctWCorinthians Brazil Serie A2006
- 21 OctLBoca Juniors Copa Sudamericana2006
- 18 OctLSao Paulo Brazil Serie A2010
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 21 /32 | 25.1 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 20th |
| Vasco DA Gama | 38 /32 | 45.4 | 0% | 0% | 5% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chapecoense-sc: balanced profile (how Rafael Lacerda plays) · Vasco DA Gama: balanced profile (how Pedro Emanuel plays)