Serie A · Regular Season - 37
Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras
Tue 24 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Arena Condá, Chapeco
Chapecoense-sc host Palmeiras on Tue 24 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chapecoense-sc 16%, draw 22%, Palmeiras 62%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chapecoense-sc €501K, Palmeiras €7.6M.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Série A): Chapecoense-sc rank #19 of 20, Palmeiras #4.
- Palmeiras' expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.1 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chapecoense-sc goals first.
- 0–112%
- 0–211%
- 1–111%
- 1–210%
- 0–37%
- 0–07%
- Other scores42%
Team Elo: Chapecoense-sc 1668 · Palmeiras 2144
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chapecoense-sc · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1624
Palmeiras · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +11.0 (Elite) · Elo 2115
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chapecoense-sc
20th in Série A · 21 pts from 33
- 3 NovLMirassol Brazil Serie A1652
- 28 OctLRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A1647
- 24 OctWFluminense Brazil Serie A1661
- 17 OctLBotafogo Brazil Serie A1665
- 12 OctLAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A1670
Palmeiras
2nd in Série A · 73 pts from 34
- 8 NovLVasco Da Gama Brazil Copa do Brasil2172
- 5 NovWRemo Brazil Serie A2161
- 1 NovWVasco Da Gama Brazil Copa do Brasil2167
- 28 OctDSantos Brazil Serie A2162
- 24 OctWRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2136
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 21 /33 | 24.6 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 20th |
| Palmeiras | 73 /34 | 80.3 | 11% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chapecoense-sc: balanced profile (how Lacerda Rafael plays) · Palmeiras: shot-heavy (how Abel Ferreira plays)