Serie A · Regular Season - 34
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Arena Condá, Chapeco
Chapecoense-sc host Mirassol on Tue 3 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chapecoense-sc 37%, draw 29%, Mirassol 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chapecoense-sc €561K, Mirassol €1.1M.
- Home advantage makes Chapecoense-sc the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- All 11 of Mirassol's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chapecoense-sc goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Chapecoense-sc 1681 · Mirassol 1820
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chapecoense-sc · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1581
Mirassol · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 1929
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chapecoense-sc
20th in Série A · 18 pts from 30
- 17 OctLBotafogo Brazil Serie A1695
- 7 OctLVitoria Brazil Serie A1711
- 19 SepDAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1703
- 6 SepWCorinthians Brazil Serie A1663
- 30 AugLGremio Brazil Serie A1633
Mirassol
14th in Série A · 36 pts from 31
- 16 OctWInternacional Brazil Serie A1825
- 11 OctLBahia Brazil Serie A1813
- 7 OctDRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A1796
- 19 SepWBotafogo Brazil Serie A1753
- 13 SepDVitoria Brazil Serie A1738
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 18 /30 | 23.8 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 20th |
| Mirassol | 36 /31 | 44.4 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chapecoense-sc: balanced profile (how Rafael dos Santos Lacerda plays) · Mirassol: balanced profile (how Rafael Silva Guanaes plays)