Serie A · Regular Season - 32
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Arena Condá, Chapeco
Chapecoense-sc host Fluminense on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chapecoense-sc 27%, draw 28%, Fluminense 45%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chapecoense-sc €561K, Fluminense €4.2M.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Série A): Chapecoense-sc rank #19 of 20, Fluminense #4.
- All 11 of Fluminense's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chapecoense-sc goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Chapecoense-sc 1681 · Fluminense 1951
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chapecoense-sc · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1581
Fluminense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2142
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chapecoense-sc
20th in Série A · 18 pts from 30
- 17 OctLBotafogo Brazil Serie A1695
- 7 OctLVitoria Brazil Serie A1711
- 19 SepDAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1703
- 6 SepWCorinthians Brazil Serie A1663
- 30 AugLGremio Brazil Serie A1633
Fluminense
5th in Série A · 51 pts from 31
- 18 OctLSantos Brazil Serie A1944
- 15 OctLPalmeiras Copa Libertadores1953
- 11 OctLFlamengo Brazil Serie A1982
- 9 OctWCoritiba Brazil Serie A1954
- 20 SepWCorinthians Brazil Serie A1927
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 18 /30 | 23.8 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 20th |
| Fluminense | 51 /31 | 61.5 | 0% | 49% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chapecoense-sc: balanced profile (how Rafael dos Santos Lacerda plays) · Fluminense: possession-based (how Marco Aurélio de Oliveira plays)