Serie A · Regular Season - 36
Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Arena Condá, Chapeco
Chapecoense-sc host Cruzeiro on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chapecoense-sc 23%, draw 27%, Cruzeiro 51%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chapecoense-sc €501K, Cruzeiro €5.0M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Série A matchday 36: 345 points.
- Cruzeiro's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.8 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chapecoense-sc goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–29%
- 0–07%
- 1–06%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Chapecoense-sc 1668 · Cruzeiro 2013
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chapecoense-sc · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1624
Cruzeiro · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.5 (Elite) · Elo 2126
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chapecoense-sc
20th in Série A · 21 pts from 33
- 3 NovLMirassol Brazil Serie A1652
- 28 OctLRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A1647
- 24 OctWFluminense Brazil Serie A1661
- 17 OctLBotafogo Brazil Serie A1665
- 12 OctLAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A1670
Cruzeiro
3rd in Série A · 60 pts from 34
- 6 NovWBahia Brazil Serie A2016
- 29 OctWAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A2040
- 23 OctWRemo Brazil Serie A2033
- 18 OctWGremio Brazil Serie A2013
- 13 OctLRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2001
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 21 /33 | 24.6 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 20th |
| Cruzeiro | 60 /34 | 66.3 | 0% | 96% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chapecoense-sc: balanced profile (how Lacerda Rafael plays) · Cruzeiro: balanced profile (how Artur Jorge plays)