Serie A · Regular Season - 30
Chapecoense-sc 1–4 Atletico Paranaense
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Arena Condá, Chapeco
Chapecoense-scTeam 1684Atletico ParanaenseTeam 1881- Maurício Garcez 72'
- Leonardo Caetano Silva 6'
- Luiz Gustavo 29'
- Kevin Viveros 31', 78'
We gave Atletico Paranaense 39% to win: they did.
- 6'Leonardo Caetano Silva – assist Gilberto –Atletico Paranaense:Leonardo Caetano Silva – assist Gilberto –
- 29'Luiz Gustavo –Atletico Paranaense:Luiz Gustavo –
- 31'Kevin Viveros – assist Gilberto –Atletico Paranaense:Kevin Viveros – assist Gilberto –
- Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior –40'Chapecoense-sc:Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior –
- João Paulo –45'Chapecoense-sc:João Paulo –
- Yannick Bolasie – for Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior –45'Chapecoense-sc:Yannick Bolasie – for Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior –
- Eduardo Vinicius Domachowski – for Luis Eduardo Marques dos Santos –45'Chapecoense-sc:Eduardo Vinicius Domachowski – for Luis Eduardo Marques dos Santos –
- 45'Claudinho – for Lucas Esquivel –Atletico Paranaense:Claudinho – for Lucas Esquivel –
- 45'Leonardo Pinheiro da Conceição – for Arthur Dias –Atletico Paranaense:Leonardo Pinheiro da Conceição – for Arthur Dias –
- 45'Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio – for Leonardo Caetano Silva –Atletico Paranaense:Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio – for Leonardo Caetano Silva –
- 70'Gilberto –Atletico Paranaense:Gilberto –
- David Antunes da Silva – for Yago Felipe –70'Chapecoense-sc:David Antunes da Silva – for Yago Felipe –
- Rodrigo – for Giovanni Augusto –71'Chapecoense-sc:Rodrigo – for Giovanni Augusto –
- Maurício Garcez – assist Yannick Bolasie –72'Chapecoense-sc:Maurício Garcez – assist Yannick Bolasie –
- 78'Kevin Viveros – assist Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio –Atletico Paranaense:Kevin Viveros – assist Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio –
- Rafael Thyere – for Kauan Faria –84'Chapecoense-sc:Rafael Thyere – for Kauan Faria –
- 84'Antonio Feliphe Costa Silva – for Gilberto –Atletico Paranaense:Antonio Feliphe Costa Silva – for Gilberto –
- 89'Juan Portilla – for Luiz Gustavo –Atletico Paranaense:Juan Portilla – for Luiz Gustavo –
Before kick-off (provisional): 32% · 29% · 39%(Chapecoense-sc · draw · Atletico Paranaense)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–4 had 1%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chapecoense-sc €581K, Atletico Paranaense €1.8M.
- Chapecoense-sc were without 1 expected starter: Heitor (1665).
- Atletico Paranaense were without 1 expected starter: Dantas (1861).
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Série A): Chapecoense-sc ranked #19 of 20, Atletico Paranaense #2.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chapecoense-sc
20th in Série A · 18 pts from 28
- 7 OctLVitoria Brazil Serie A1711
- 19 SepDAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1703
- 6 SepWCorinthians Brazil Serie A1663
- 30 AugLGremio Brazil Serie A1633
- 23 AugWSao Paulo Brazil Serie A1602
Atletico Paranaense
4th in Série A · 50 pts from 29
- 8 OctDAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1918
- 20 SepWBahia Brazil Serie A1893
- 12 SepDCoritiba Brazil Serie A1909
- 6 SepLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1896
- 30 AugDFluminense Brazil Serie A1913
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 18 /28 | 25.9 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 20th |
| Atletico Paranaense | 50 /29 | 61.4 | 0% | 43% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chapecoense-sc · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1592
Atletico Paranaense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2012
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chapecoense-sc: balanced profile (how Rafael dos Santos Lacerda plays) · Atletico Paranaense: balanced profile (how Odair Hellmann plays)