Liga MX · Apertura - 17
CF Pachuca vs Toluca
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
CF Pachuca host Toluca on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Liga MX); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: CF Pachuca 32%, draw 29%, Toluca 39%.
- Average value of the expected XI: CF Pachuca €2.7M, Toluca €5.9M.
- Toluca are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. CF Pachuca goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–28%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–07%
- 0–07%
- Other scores48%
Team Elo: CF Pachuca 1935 · Toluca 2098
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
CF Pachuca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2063
Toluca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2155
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
CF Pachuca
8th in Liga MX · 22 pts from 16
- 7 NovWAtlas Liga MX1944
- 31 OctWTigres UANL Liga MX1916
- 26 OctWClub America Liga MX1877
- 22 OctLCruz Azul Liga MX1832
- 19 OctLMonterrey Liga MX1898
Toluca
4th in Liga MX · 27 pts from 16
- 8 NovWMonterrey Liga MX2079
- 1 NovDClub America Liga MX2064
- 24 OctDLeon Liga MX2052
- 22 OctDClub Tijuana Liga MX2138
- 18 OctDAtletico San Luis Liga MX2107
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Pachuca | 22 /16 | 23.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7th |
| Toluca | 27 /16 | 28.4 | 0% | 65% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
CF Pachuca: dribble-heavy (how B. Mora plays) · Toluca: balanced profile (how A. Mohamed plays)