Serie B · Regular Season - 13
Cesena vs Ascoli
Tue 24 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena
Cesena host Ascoli on Tue 24 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cesena 41%, draw 29%, Ascoli 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cesena €784K, Ascoli €468K.
- Home advantage makes Cesena the favourite here: it adds 7 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in possession (Serie B): Cesena rank #4 of 20, Ascoli #18.
- Ascoli are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cesena goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–012%
- 0–010%
- 0–110%
- 2–18%
- 2–08%
- Other scores38%
Team Elo: Cesena 1639 · Ascoli 1659
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cesena · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1752
Ascoli · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1734
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cesena
11th in Serie B · 15 pts from 11
- 7 NovWCatanzaro Italy Serie B1602
- 31 OctDSudtirol Italy Serie B1625
- 27 OctWEmpoli Italy Serie B1555
- 24 OctLModena Italy Serie B1629
- 18 OctDAvellino Italy Serie B1644
Ascoli
3rd in Serie B · 20 pts from 11
- 6 NovDPalermo Italy Serie B1651
- 1 NovDArezzo Italy Serie B1628
- 27 OctWSampdoria Italy Serie B1573
- 24 OctWCatanzaro Italy Serie B1563
- 17 OctDEmpoli Italy Serie B1577
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena | 15 /11 | 47.7 | 0% | 2% | 8% | 12th |
| Ascoli | 20 /11 | 53.9 | <1% | 13% | 1% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cesena: balanced profile (how Alessandro Diamanti plays) · Ascoli: direct (how Francesco Tomei plays)