Division Profesional - Clausura · Clausura - 19
Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta
Sun 15 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio General Pablo Rojas
Cerro Porteno host Deportivo Recoleta on Sun 15 Nov 2026 (Division Profesional - Clausura); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cerro Porteno 71%, draw 18%, Deportivo Recoleta 11%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cerro Porteno €530K, Deportivo Recoleta €256K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the Division Profesional - Clausura Clausura - 19: 333 points.
- Draw chance 18%, below the Division Profesional - Clausura average of 26% this round.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Division Profesional - Clausura): Cerro Porteno rank #2 of 12, Deportivo Recoleta #10.
- Deportivo Recoleta's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.7 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cerro Porteno goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 3–09%
- 1–19%
- 1–08%
- 3–18%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Cerro Porteno 1729 · Deportivo Recoleta 1396
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cerro Porteno · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1727
Deportivo Recoleta · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1477
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cerro Porteno
7th in Division Profesional - Clausura · 24 pts from 16
- 25 OctWClub Sp. San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional1697
- 18 OctDSportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional1700
- 10 OctWSportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional1683
- 5 OctL2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional1728
- 26 SepLSportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional1743
Deportivo Recoleta
11th in Division Profesional - Clausura · 12 pts from 16
- 24 OctD2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional1344
- 16 OctWRubio NU Paraguay Division Profesional1379
- 12 OctLNacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional1394
- 5 OctLLibertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional1397
- 28 SepDClub Sp. San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional1372
Season outlook
From the Division Profesional - Clausura simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Porteno | 24 /16 | 34.3 | 1% | 26% | 0% | 7th |
| Deportivo Recoleta | 12 /16 | 17.9 | 0% | 0% | 93% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Full table and finishing odds: Division Profesional - Clausura
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cerro Porteno: balanced profile (how G. Costas plays) · Deportivo Recoleta: balanced profile (how J. González plays)