Primera División · Clausura - 10
Central Espanol 0–1 Club Nacional
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Estadio Centenario, Montevideo
Central EspanolTeam 1422Club NacionalTeam 1743- tiziano correa 22'
We gave Club Nacional 56% to win: they did.
- Mariano Aguilera –3'Central Espanol:Mariano Aguilera –
- 22'tiziano correa –Club Nacional:tiziano correa –
- Federico Pintado Núñez – for Emiliano·Marquez Fernandez –30'Central Espanol:Federico Pintado Núñez – for Emiliano·Marquez Fernandez –
- Franco Munoz – for Marcos Montiel –70'Central Espanol:Franco Munoz – for Marcos Montiel –
- J. Dellarossa – for raul tarragona –70'Central Espanol:J. Dellarossa – for raul tarragona –
- 73'Ruben Botta – for luciano gonzalez –Club Nacional:Ruben Botta – for luciano gonzalez –
- Francisco Montoro for Mariano Aguilera –77'Central Espanol:Francisco Montoro for Mariano Aguilera –
- facundo sosa – for Fernando Camarda –77'Central Espanol:facundo sosa – for Fernando Camarda –
- 79'Tomás Verón Lupi – for tiziano correa –Club Nacional:Tomás Verón Lupi – for tiziano correa –
- 87'Maximiliano Joaquin·Silvera Cabo – for Maximiliano Gómez –Club Nacional:Maximiliano Joaquin·Silvera Cabo – for Maximiliano Gómez –
- 87'Emiliano Ancheta – for Gaston Martirena –Club Nacional:Emiliano Ancheta – for Gaston Martirena –
- J. Dellarossa –89'Central Espanol:J. Dellarossa –
- 90+1'Sebastián Coates –Club Nacional:Sebastián Coates –
Before kick-off (provisional): 19% · 25% · 56%(Central Espanol · draw · Club Nacional)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 0–1 had 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Central Espanol €217K, Club Nacional €698K.
- Primera División - Apertura: L. Mejía was the highest-rated goalkeeper (1805).
- Rodolfo and M. Montiel (Central Espanol) had not played for over 90 days.
- Club Nacional were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Central Espanol
8th in Primera División - Apertura · 38 pts from 31
- 3 OctLDeportivo Maldonado Uruguay Primera Division1444
- 12 JulDBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1408
- 6 JunDRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1401
- 1 JunWPenarol Uruguay Primera Division1379
- 24 MayLCerro Uruguay Primera Division1402
Club Nacional
5th in Primera División - Apertura · 52 pts from 31
- 5 OctWAtletico Torque Uruguay Primera Division1710
- 26 SepWCerro Largo Uruguay Primera Division1704
- 20 SepWDefensor Sporting Uruguay Primera Division1706
- 12 SepDWanderers Uruguay Primera Division1745
- 6 SepDJuventud Uruguay Primera Division1744
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Espanol | 38 /31 | 40.1 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 16th |
| Club Nacional | 131 /68 | 134.9 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Club Nacional · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1805
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile