A-League · Regular Season - 5
Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 06:00 UTC
Central Coast Mariners host Perth Glory on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (A-League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Central Coast Mariners 26%, draw 28%, Perth Glory 47%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Central Coast Mariners €257K, Perth Glory €313K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of A-League matchday 5: 151 points.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Central Coast Mariners goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–29%
- 0–18%
- 0–27%
- 2–27%
- 2–16%
- Other scores50%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.8 pts
Team Elo: Central Coast Mariners 1439 · Perth Glory 1590
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 4 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Central Coast Mariners · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1526
Perth Glory · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Elite) · Elo 1694
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Central Coast Mariners
11th in A-League · 2 pts from 4
- 6 NovLSydney A-League1462
- 25 OctLWellington Phoenix A-League1447
- 17 OctDNewcastle Jets A-League1469
- 25 AprLNewcastle Jets A-League1491
- 19 AprWAuckland A-League1448
Perth Glory
5th in A-League · 6 pts from 4
- 7 NovWNewcastle Jets A-League1510
- 1 NovWAdelaide United A-League1471
- 23 OctLBrisbane Roar A-League1461
- 17 OctLMacarthur A-League1482
- 25 AprWBrisbane Roar A-League1590
Season outlook
From the A-League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Coast Mariners | 2 /4 | 23.8 | 0% | 1% | 86% | 12th |
| Perth Glory | 6 /4 | 36.5 | 6% | 36% | 12% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Central Coast Mariners: low-volume (how Warren Moon plays) · Perth Glory: direct (how A. Griffiths plays)