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La Liga · Regular Season - 9

Celta Vigo 2–1 Alaves

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 14:15 UTC · Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo crestCelta VigoTeam 1997
2–1
Full time
HT 0–0
Alaves crestAlavesTeam 1920

Match story

Celta Vigo · draw · Alaves

Before kick-off: 51% · 27% · 22%

Live chances: Celta Vigo 99%, draw 1%, Alaves 0% at 90+6'2' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 51%, draw 27%, Alaves 22%3' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 51%, draw 27%, Alaves 22%4' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 51%, draw 27%, Alaves 22%5' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 50%, draw 28%, Alaves 22%6' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 50%, draw 28%, Alaves 22%7' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 50%, draw 28%, Alaves 22%8' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 50%, draw 28%, Alaves 22%9' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 50%, draw 28%, Alaves 22%10' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 50%, draw 28%, Alaves 22%11' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 49%, draw 28%, Alaves 22%12' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 49%, draw 28%, Alaves 22%13' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 49%, draw 29%, Alaves 22%14' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 49%, draw 29%, Alaves 22%15' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 49%, draw 29%, Alaves 22%16' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 49%, draw 29%, Alaves 22%17' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 48%, draw 29%, Alaves 22%18' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 48%, draw 29%, Alaves 22%19' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 48%, draw 30%, Alaves 22%20' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 48%, draw 30%, Alaves 22%21' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 48%, draw 30%, Alaves 22%22' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 47%, draw 30%, Alaves 22%23' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 47%, draw 30%, Alaves 22%24' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 47%, draw 31%, Alaves 22%25' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 47%, draw 31%, Alaves 22%26' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 47%, draw 31%, Alaves 22%27' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 47%, draw 31%, Alaves 22%28' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 46%, draw 31%, Alaves 22%29' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 46%, draw 31%, Alaves 22%30' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 46%, draw 32%, Alaves 22%31' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 46%, draw 32%, Alaves 22%33' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 45%, draw 32%, Alaves 22%34' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 45%, draw 33%, Alaves 22%35' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 45%, draw 33%, Alaves 22%36' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 45%, draw 33%, Alaves 22%37' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 44%, draw 33%, Alaves 22%38' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 44%, draw 34%, Alaves 22%39' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 44%, draw 34%, Alaves 22%40' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 43%, draw 34%, Alaves 22%41' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 43%, draw 35%, Alaves 22%42' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 43%, draw 35%, Alaves 22%43' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 43%, draw 35%, Alaves 22%44' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 42%, draw 36%, Alaves 22%45' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 42%, draw 36%, Alaves 22%45+1' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 42%, draw 36%, Alaves 22%HT · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 41%, draw 37%, Alaves 22%46' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 41%, draw 37%, Alaves 22%47' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 41%, draw 38%, Alaves 22%48' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 40%, draw 38%, Alaves 22%49' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 40%, draw 38%, Alaves 22%50' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 40%, draw 39%, Alaves 22%51' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 39%, draw 39%, Alaves 21%52' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 39%, draw 40%, Alaves 21%53' · 0–0 · Celta Vigo 38%, draw 40%, Alaves 21%54' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 77%, draw 18%, Alaves 5%55' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 77%, draw 18%, Alaves 5%56' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 77%, draw 18%, Alaves 5%57' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 78%, draw 18%, Alaves 4%58' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 78%, draw 18%, Alaves 4%59' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 78%, draw 18%, Alaves 4%60' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 78%, draw 18%, Alaves 4%61' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 78%, draw 18%, Alaves 4%62' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 79%, draw 18%, Alaves 4%63' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 79%, draw 17%, Alaves 4%65' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 79%, draw 17%, Alaves 3%66' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 80%, draw 17%, Alaves 3%68' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 80%, draw 17%, Alaves 3%69' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 81%, draw 17%, Alaves 3%70' · 1–0 · Celta Vigo 81%, draw 16%, Alaves 3%71' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 98%, draw 2%, Alaves 0%72' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 98%, draw 2%, Alaves 0%73' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 98%, draw 2%, Alaves 0%74' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 98%, draw 2%, Alaves 0%75' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 98%, draw 2%, Alaves 0%76' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 98%, draw 2%, Alaves 0%77' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 98%, draw 2%, Alaves 0%78' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 98%, draw 1%, Alaves 0%79' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 99%, draw 1%, Alaves 0%80' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 99%, draw 1%, Alaves 0%81' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 99%, draw 1%, Alaves 0%82' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 99%, draw 1%, Alaves 0%83' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 99%, draw 1%, Alaves 0%84' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 99%, draw 1%, Alaves 0%85' · 2–0 · Celta Vigo 99%, draw 1%, Alaves 0%87' · 2–1 · Celta Vigo 90%, draw 10%, Alaves 1%89' · 2–1 · Celta Vigo 91%, draw 8%, Alaves 0%90' · 2–1 · Celta Vigo 92%, draw 7%, Alaves 0%90+1' · 2–1 · Celta Vigo 93%, draw 6%, Alaves 0%90+2' · 2–1 · Celta Vigo 94%, draw 5%, Alaves 0%90+3' · 2–1 · Celta Vigo 96%, draw 4%, Alaves 0%90+4' · 2–1 · Celta Vigo 97%, draw 3%, Alaves 0%90+5' · 2–1 · Celta Vigo 98%, draw 2%, Alaves 0%90+6' · 2–1 · Celta Vigo 99%, draw 1%, Alaves 0%

Last reading, 90+6': 99% · 1% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Celta Vigo 51% to win: they did.

  1. 15'Celta Vigo:Sebastián Cáceres 2121 0*
  2. 45'Alaves:Toni Martínez 1981 −5
  3. 45'Celta Vigo:Aleix Febas 2014 +4 for Ilaix Moriba 2195 +3
  4. 45'Celta Vigo:Javier Rueda García 2040 +6 for Williot Swedberg 2136 +4
  5. 53'Celta Vigo:Ferran Jutglà 2132 +24 assist Javier Rodríguez Galiano 2216 +17
  6. 62'Alaves:Hugo Novoa Ramos 1671 −8* for Jonny Otto 1974 −8
  7. 62'Alaves:Mariano Díaz 1707 −5 for Toni Martínez 1981 −5
  8. 62'Alaves:Denis Suárez 1779 −5 for Carles Aleñá 1923 −11*
  9. 70'Celta Vigo:Iago Aspas 1622 −7 for Couhaib Driouech 1917 +13
  10. 70'Celta Vigo:Andrés Antañón Vieites 1753 −3* for Hugo Burcio 1819 +16
  11. 71'Celta Vigo:Javier Rodríguez Galiano 2216 +17 assist Iago Aspas 1622 −7
  12. 77'Celta Vigo:Marcos Alonso 2029 −6 for Sebastián Cáceres 2121 0*
  13. 87'Alaves:Hugo Novoa Ramos 1671 −8* assist Mariano Díaz 1707 −5
  14. 88'Alaves:Aitor Mañas 1387 0 for Abderrahmane Rebbach 1971 −15
  15. 88'Alaves:Ander Guevara 1880 −2 for Antonio Blanco 2017 −21

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-3Formations5-3-2
GSivera2029−8
DV. Koski1963−7
DN. Tenaglia2018−10
DN. Valentini18590
DJonny1974−8
DA. Rebbach1971−15
MPablo Ibáñez1998−8
MAntonio Blanco2017−21
MCarles Aleñá1923−11*
FToni Martínez1981−5
FL. Boyé1949−7
CQuique Sánchez Flores1973−10
Before kick-off: 51% · 27% · 22%(Celta Vigo · draw · Alaves)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–1 had 10%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Celta Vigo €8.1M, Alaves €3.0M.
  • Celta Vigo were without 1 expected starter: Miguel Román (2078).
  • Alaves were without 1 expected starter: Angel Pérez (1795).
  • Style contrast in pressing & duels (La Liga): Celta Vigo ranked #19 of 20, Alaves #1.
  • All 11 of Alaves' expected starters were past their position's peak age.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Celta Vigo

11th in La Liga · 8 pts from 8

  • 15 OctLJuventus 2105
  • 11 OctDElche 2089
  • 19 SepWRacing Santander 2031
  • 16 SepLOmonia Nicosia 2078
  • 13 SepDMalaga 2039

Alaves

7th in La Liga · 11 pts from 8

  • 10 OctLAtletico Madrid 1964
  • 19 SepDAthletic Club 1924
  • 15 SepLValencia 1966
  • 12 SepLRacing Santander 1947
  • 6 SepWOsasuna 1931

Season outlook

From the La Liga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Celta Vigo8 /845.30%0%5%9th
Alaves11 /841.10%0%17%13th
Celta Vigo
Alaves

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: La Liga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Yoel Lago
Yoel Lago

Celta Vigo · +1.7 (Average) · Elo 1984

V. Koski
V. Koski

Alaves · +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1970

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Claudio Giráldez González

Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block

Enrique Sánchez Flores

Coach DNA: direct

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Celta Vigo: balanced profile (how Claudio Giráldez González plays) · Alaves: direct (how Enrique Sánchez Flores plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.