1. SNL · Regular Season - 11
Celje 1–0 Aluminij
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UTC
CeljeTeam 1727AluminijTeam 1378- M. Avdyli 10'
We gave Celje 70% to win: they did.
- M. Avdyli –10'Celje:M. Avdyli –
- 19'P. Petrisko –Aluminij:P. Petrisko –
- 55'A. Bekavac –Aluminij:A. Bekavac –
- M. Zabukovnik – for L. Ticic –62'Celje:M. Zabukovnik – for L. Ticic –
- 63'D. Zajsek – for A. Bekavac –Aluminij:D. Zajsek – for A. Bekavac –
- 63'R. Ramsak – for B. Susso –Aluminij:R. Ramsak – for B. Susso –
- Z. Zuzek – for M. Ivansek –63'Celje:Z. Zuzek – for M. Ivansek –
- V. Tusha – for M. Kvesic –71'Celje:V. Tusha – for M. Kvesic –
- B. Kramer – for A. Kucys –71'Celje:B. Kramer – for A. Kucys –
- 77'M. Mladenovic – for P. Petrisko –Aluminij:M. Mladenovic – for P. Petrisko –
- M. Avdyli –80'Celje:M. Avdyli –
- P. Daniel – for I. Calusic –81'Celje:P. Daniel – for I. Calusic –
- A. Tutyskinas –83'Celje:A. Tutyskinas –
- 86'A. Bloudek – for B. Osuji –Aluminij:A. Bloudek – for B. Osuji –
- 87'I. Svrznjak – for M. Vrbanec –Aluminij:I. Svrznjak – for M. Vrbanec –
- 90+2'R. Schaubach –Aluminij:R. Schaubach –
Before kick-off (provisional): 70% · 19% · 11%(Celje · draw · Aluminij)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 1–0 had 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Celje €818K, Aluminij €212K.
- Draw chance was 19%, below the 1. SNL average of 26% this round.
- L. Kolar (Celje) had not played for over 90 days.
- U. Korun, S. Evangelou, I. Svržnjak, B. Feta and O. Kočar (Aluminij) had not played for over 90 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Celje
7th in 1. SNL · 12 pts from 9
- 16 SepLBayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League1757
- 26 AugDSlovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League1697
- 19 AugDSlovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League1701
- 11 AugWArarat-Armenia UEFA Champions League1733
- 4 AugLArarat-Armenia UEFA Champions League1686
Aluminij
5th in 1. SNL · 13 pts from 10
- 30 JulLDinamo Tirana UEFA Conference League1420
- 23 JulDDinamo Tirana UEFA Conference League1405
- 16 JulLSheriff Tiraspol UEFA Europa League1373
- 9 JulDSheriff Tiraspol UEFA Europa League1375
- 3 AprLRadomlje Slovenia 1 SNL1408
Season outlook
From the 1. SNL simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celje | 12 /9 | 57.1 | 40% | 95% | <1% | 1st |
| Aluminij | 13 /10 | 38.3 | <1% | 8% | 54% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 9th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Celje · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1940
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –