Serie B · Regular Season - 34
Ceara 2–2 Juventude
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Estadio Castelão, Fortaleza
CearaTeam 1674JuventudeTeam 1749- Saulo Mineiro 70'
- Saulo Mineiro 90+16' (pen)
- Raí da Silva Pessanha 68' (pen)
- Gabriel Pires 78'
We gave Ceara 40% to win: it ended in a draw.
- Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli – for Julio Cesar –22'Ceara:Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli – for Julio Cesar –
- 34'Safira –Juventude:Safira –
- Vinícius – for Renzo López –45'Ceara:Vinícius – for Renzo López –
- Éder –45+1'Ceara:Éder –
- 58'Messias Rodrigues da Silva Júnior –Juventude:Messias Rodrigues da Silva Júnior –
- 68'Raí da Silva Pessanha – (pen.)Juventude:Raí da Silva Pessanha – (pen.)
- Saulo Mineiro – assist João Gabriel Santos Batista –70'Ceara:Saulo Mineiro – assist João Gabriel Santos Batista –
- 72'Maurício Nogueira BarbieriJuventude:Maurício Nogueira Barbieri
- 74'Lucas Alves – for Fabio lima –Juventude:Lucas Alves – for Fabio lima –
- 74'Juan – for Marcos Paulo –Juventude:Juan – for Marcos Paulo –
- 78'Gabriel Pires – assist Raí da Silva Pessanha –Juventude:Gabriel Pires – assist Raí da Silva Pessanha –
- 81'Lucas Mineiro – for Safira –Juventude:Lucas Mineiro – for Safira –
- 81'Gabriel Barbosa Pinheiro – for Messias Rodrigues da Silva Júnior –Juventude:Gabriel Barbosa Pinheiro – for Messias Rodrigues da Silva Júnior –
- Rian Santana for Enzo Lodovico82'Ceara:Rian Santana for Enzo Lodovico
- Matheus Araujo – for Vinicius Zanocelo –82'Ceara:Matheus Araujo – for Vinicius Zanocelo –
- 86'Alan Kardec – for Raí da Silva Pessanha –Juventude:Alan Kardec – for Raí da Silva Pessanha –
- Lucca Holanda Sampaio Tavares – for Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli –90+1'Ceara:Lucca Holanda Sampaio Tavares – for Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli –
- Saulo Mineiro – (pen.)90+16'Ceara:Saulo Mineiro – (pen.)
- Saulo Mineiro –90+17'Ceara:Saulo Mineiro –
Before kick-off (provisional): 40% · 29% · 31%(Ceara · draw · Juventude)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–2 had 5%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ceara €544K, Juventude €632K.
- Home advantage made Ceara the favourite: it added 11 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ceara
15th in Serie B · 42 pts from 33
- 13 OctLBotafogo SP Brazil Serie B1704
- 8 OctWCriciuma Brazil Serie B1650
- 3 OctWAvai Brazil Serie B1629
- 26 SepDOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1662
- 18 SepWNovorizontino Brazil Serie B1637
Juventude
3rd in Serie B · 60 pts from 33
- 11 OctDSão Bernardo Brazil Serie B1766
- 7 OctWPonte Preta Brazil Serie B1751
- 2 OctWOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1745
- 28 SepWAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B1697
- 19 SepLSport Recife Brazil Serie B1704
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara | 42 /33 | 49.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14th |
| Juventude | 60 /33 | 67.7 | 26% | 94% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ceara · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Average) · Elo 1752
Juventude · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.1 (Elite) · Elo 1829
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Ceara: direct (how Daniel Pollo Barioni plays) · Juventude: direct (how Maurício Nogueira Barbieri plays)