Serie B · Regular Season - 32
Ceara 1–0 Criciuma
Thu 8 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estadio Castelão, Fortaleza
CearaTeam 1593CriciumaTeam 1656We gave Ceara 41% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 41% · 29% · 30%(Ceara · draw · Criciuma)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–0 had 9%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Ceara €399K, Criciuma €421K.
- Home advantage made Ceara the favourite: it added 11 points to their win chance.
- Ceara's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.5 over 180 days.
- All 11 of Criciuma's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ceara
15th in Serie B · 39 pts from 31
- 3 OctWAvai Brazil Serie B1629
- 26 SepDOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1662
- 18 SepWNovorizontino Brazil Serie B1637
- 13 SepDFortaleza EC Brazil Serie B1636
- 10 SepLAtletico Goianiense Brazil Serie B1648
Criciuma
5th in Serie B · 53 pts from 31
- 2 OctWLondrina Brazil Serie B1667
- 27 SepWAvai Brazil Serie B1646
- 22 SepLOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1668
- 13 SepLAtletico Goianiense Brazil Serie B1708
- 9 SepLJuventude Brazil Serie B1741
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara | 39 /31 | 49.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15th |
| Criciuma | 53 /31 | 63.3 | 3% | 41% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ceara · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1510
Criciuma · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.4 (Good) · Elo 1626
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Ceara: direct (how Daniel Pollo Barioni plays) · Criciuma: balanced profile (how Eduardo Alexandre Baptista plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.