Canadian Premier League · Group Stage
Cavalry FC 4–2 Pacific FC
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC · ATCO Field, Foothills County
Cavalry FCTeam 1567Pacific FCTeam 1292- Daan Klomp 12'
- Tobias Warschewski 17' (pen)
- B. Kamdem 45+1'
- Ali Musse 51' (pen)
- M. Vales 9'
- Marco Bustos 44' (pen)
We gave Cavalry FC 64% to win: they did.
- 9'M. Vales – assist Marco Bustos –Pacific FC:M. Vales – assist Marco Bustos –
- Daan Klomp – assist B. Kamdem –12'Cavalry FC:Daan Klomp – assist B. Kamdem –
- Tobias Warschewski – (pen.)17'Cavalry FC:Tobias Warschewski – (pen.)
- 25'J. Kadin Brian Chung –Pacific FC:J. Kadin Brian Chung –
- Adam Pearlman –42'Cavalry FC:Adam Pearlman –
- 44'Marco Bustos – (pen.)Pacific FC:Marco Bustos – (pen.)
- Nathaniel Edwards – for Adam Pearlman –45'Cavalry FC:Nathaniel Edwards – for Adam Pearlman –
- B. Kamdem –45+1'Cavalry FC:B. Kamdem –
- 50'Juan David Quintana Echeverry –Pacific FC:Juan David Quintana Echeverry –
- Ali Musse – (pen.)51'Cavalry FC:Ali Musse – (pen.)
- 52'Christian Greco-Taylor – for J. Kadin Brian Chung –Pacific FC:Christian Greco-Taylor – for J. Kadin Brian Chung –
- 63'Roshawn Kadeem Delahaye Juhmi –Pacific FC:Roshawn Kadeem Delahaye Juhmi –
- 64'Lukas Browning Lagerfeldt – for Roshawn Kadeem Delahaye Juhmi –Pacific FC:Lukas Browning Lagerfeldt – for Roshawn Kadeem Delahaye Juhmi –
- 65'Y. Toualy – for Aidan Daniels –Pacific FC:Y. Toualy – for Aidan Daniels –
- Maël Henry – for Michael Baldisimo –71'Cavalry FC:Maël Henry – for Michael Baldisimo –
- Owen Graham-Roache – for Caniggia Elva –71'Cavalry FC:Owen Graham-Roache – for Caniggia Elva –
- 77'Alejandro Diaz – for Marco Bustos –Pacific FC:Alejandro Diaz – for Marco Bustos –
- 77'Marley Edwards – for R. Kratt –Pacific FC:Marley Edwards – for R. Kratt –
- Levi Laing – for Ali Musse –81'Cavalry FC:Levi Laing – for Ali Musse –
- Maël Henry –82'Cavalry FC:Maël Henry –
- James McGlinchey – for Goteh Ntignee –85'Cavalry FC:James McGlinchey – for Goteh Ntignee –
Before kick-off (provisional): 64% · 22% · 14%(Cavalry FC · draw · Pacific FC)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 4–2 had 2%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cavalry FC €257K, Pacific FC €142K.
- Style contrast in attacking (Canadian Premier League): Cavalry FC ranked #1 of 7, Pacific FC #5.
- Pacific FC's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cavalry FC
1st in Canadian Premier League · 54 pts from 26
- 12 OctDHFX Wanderers FC Canada Premier League1616
- 3 OctLYork United Canada Premier League1560
- 30 SepLAtlético Ottawa Canada Premier League1656
- 26 SepWSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1534
- 19 SepDForge Canada Premier League1636
Pacific FC
8th in Canadian Premier League · 14 pts from 26
- 11 OctLAtlético Ottawa Canada Premier League1271
- 7 OctLForge Canada Premier League1308
- 4 OctLSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1335
- 27 SepWYork United Canada Premier League1256
- 20 SepDVancouver FC Canada Premier League1278
Season outlook
From the Canadian Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavalry FC | 54 /26 | 58.1 | 75% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Pacific FC | 14 /26 | 15.5 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 8th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cavalry FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1635
Pacific FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1374
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cavalry FC: creative (how Tommy Wheeldon Jr. plays) · Pacific FC: balanced profile (how Terry Dunfield plays)