Canadian Premier League · Final
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · ATCO Field
Cavalry FC host Atlético Ottawa on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Canadian Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cavalry FC 47%, draw 28%, Atlético Ottawa 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cavalry FC €277K, Atlético Ottawa €215K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Canadian Premier League): Cavalry FC rank #7 of 8, Atlético Ottawa #3.
- Atlético Ottawa's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cavalry FC goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–19%
- 1–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores48%
Team Elo: Cavalry FC 1596 · Atlético Ottawa 1529
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cavalry FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1639
Atlético Ottawa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1656
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cavalry FC
1st in Canadian Premier League · 60 pts from 28
- 7 NovWSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1608
- 1 NovLSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1614
- 25 OctWVancouver FC Canada Premier League1616
- 17 OctWPacific FC Canada Premier League1577
- 12 OctDHFX Wanderers FC Canada Premier League1621
Atlético Ottawa
3rd in Canadian Premier League · 43 pts from 28
- 7 NovWForge Canada Premier League1496
- 1 NovDForge Canada Premier League1501
- 25 OctLYork United Canada Premier League1475
- 17 OctLForge Canada Premier League1491
- 11 OctWPacific FC Canada Premier League1485
Season outlook
From the Canadian Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavalry FC | 60 /28 | 61.6 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Atlético Ottawa | 43 /28 | 44.1 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 8th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cavalry FC: creative (how T. Wheeldon plays) · Atlético Ottawa: balanced profile (how Gustavo Leal plays)