Serie B · Regular Season - 12
Catanzaro vs Palermo
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro
Catanzaro host Palermo on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Catanzaro 23%, draw 27%, Palermo 51%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Catanzaro €712K, Palermo €2.1M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Serie B matchday 12: 284 points.
- Serie B: M. Perin is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2062).
- Palermo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Catanzaro goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–29%
- 0–19%
- 0–28%
- 0–06%
- 2–26%
- Other scores50%
Team Elo: Catanzaro 1656 · Palermo 1940
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Catanzaro · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.9 (Good) · Elo 1720
Palermo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1978
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Catanzaro
20th in Serie B · 6 pts from 11
- 7 NovLCesena Italy Serie B1654
- 31 OctDPadova Italy Serie B1658
- 27 OctDBenevento Italy Serie B1672
- 24 OctLAscoli Italy Serie B1677
- 16 OctDHellas Verona Italy Serie B1692
Palermo
1st in Serie B · 27 pts from 11
- 6 NovDAscoli Italy Serie B1939
- 1 NovWVicenza Virtus Italy Serie B1967
- 28 OctDPisa Italy Serie B1927
- 25 OctWCarrarese Italy Serie B1956
- 17 OctWMantova Italy Serie B1958
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro | 6 /11 | 40.4 | 0% | <1% | 39% | 20th |
| Palermo | 27 /11 | 78.9 | 87% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Catanzaro: possession-based · low-block (how Michele Mignani plays) · Palermo: balanced profile (how Filippo Inzaghi plays)