Serie B · Regular Season - 6
Catanzaro 1–3 Mantova
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro
CatanzaroTeam 1681MantovaTeam 1738- Matias Antonini Lui 90+1'
- Bodin Tomašević 30'
- Francesco Ruocco 34'
- Davide Bragantini 55'
We gave Catanzaro 39% to win: Mantova won.
- 18'Stefano Cella 1873 +3*Mantova:Stefano Cella 1873 +3*
- 30'Bodin Tomašević 1573 +68* assist Rares Ilie 1757 +31*Mantova:Bodin Tomašević 1573 +68* assist Rares Ilie 1757 +31*
- 34'Francesco Ruocco 1831 +23* assist Fahem Benaissa Yahia 1854 +28*Mantova:Francesco Ruocco 1831 +23* assist Fahem Benaissa Yahia 1854 +28*
- Franky Tchaouna 1450 −8* for Nicola Mosti 1719 −13*45'Catanzaro:Franky Tchaouna 1450 −8* for Nicola Mosti 1719 −13*
- Federico Di Francesco 1662 −12* for Ruggero Frosinini 1546 −8*45'Catanzaro:Federico Di Francesco 1662 −12* for Ruggero Frosinini 1546 −8*
- 55'Davide Bragantini 1716 +38* assist Alessio Castellini 1891 +21*Mantova:Davide Bragantini 1716 +38* assist Alessio Castellini 1891 +21*
- Emanuele Pecorino 1548 −8* for Pietro Lemmello 1723 −21*64'Catanzaro:Emanuele Pecorino 1548 −8* for Pietro Lemmello 1723 −21*
- Marco D'Alessandro 1439 −16* for Mehdi Dorval 1780 −18*64'Catanzaro:Marco D'Alessandro 1439 −16* for Mehdi Dorval 1780 −18*
- 66'Ismael Cajazzo 1514 +2* for Davide Bragantini 1716 +38*Mantova:Ismael Cajazzo 1514 +2* for Davide Bragantini 1716 +38*
- 66'Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo 1679 −1* for Rares Ilie 1757 +31*Mantova:Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo 1679 −1* for Rares Ilie 1757 +31*
- 71'Ettore Gliozzi 1725 −6* for Francesco Ruocco 1831 +23*Mantova:Ettore Gliozzi 1725 −6* for Francesco Ruocco 1831 +23*
- 72'Tommaso Del Lungo for Bodin Tomašević 1573 +68*Mantova:Tommaso Del Lungo for Bodin Tomašević 1573 +68*
- G. Arditi 1372 −8* for Gabriele Alesi 1698 −12*78'Catanzaro:G. Arditi 1372 −8* for Gabriele Alesi 1698 −12*
- 83'Sambaly Keita 1431 −4* for Rachid Kouda 1819 +31*Mantova:Sambaly Keita 1431 −4* for Rachid Kouda 1819 +31*
- Marco Ruggero 1711 −15*86'Catanzaro:Marco Ruggero 1711 −15*
- Matias Antonini Lui 1745 −45* assist Emanuele Pecorino 1548 −8*90+1'Catanzaro:Matias Antonini Lui 1745 −45* assist Emanuele Pecorino 1548 −8*
- 90+3'Fahem Benaissa Yahia 1854 +28*Mantova:Fahem Benaissa Yahia 1854 +28*
- Federico Di Francesco 1662 −12*90+3'Catanzaro:Federico Di Francesco 1662 −12*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 39% · 28% · 33%(Catanzaro · draw · Mantova)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–3 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Catanzaro €840K, Mantova €924K.
- Home advantage made Catanzaro the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Catanzaro
18th in Serie B · 3 pts from 5
- 19 SepLSampdoria Italy Serie B1744
- 12 SepWCarrarese Italy Serie B1689
- 5 SepLSudtirol Italy Serie B1707
- 30 AugLPisa Italy Serie B1677
- 21 AugLVicenza Virtus Italy Serie B1693
Mantova
3rd in Serie B · 11 pts from 5
- 20 SepDPisa Italy Serie B1763
- 13 SepWSampdoria Italy Serie B1731
- 6 SepDCesena Italy Serie B1694
- 3 SepLPalermo Italy Coppa Italia1725
- 30 AugWEmpoli Italy Serie B1726
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro | 3 /5 | 48.7 | <1% | 4% | 9% | 12th |
| Mantova | 11 /5 | 59.5 | 2% | 37% | <1% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Catanzaro · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1784
Mantova · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1870
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Catanzaro: possession-based · low-block (how Giorgio Gorgone plays) · Mantova: possession-based (how Francesco Modesto plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.