Segunda División · Regular Season - 11
Castellón vs Sporting Gijon
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Estadio Municipal de Castalia
Castellón host Sporting Gijon on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Segunda División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Castellón 45%, draw 28%, Sporting Gijon 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Castellón €981K, Sporting Gijon €1.1M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Castellón goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Castellón 1864 · Sporting Gijon 1855
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Castellón · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 1951
Sporting Gijon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1954
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Castellón
2nd in Segunda División · 23 pts from 10
- 17 OctWLas Palmas Spain Segunda Division1853
- 11 OctLFC Andorra Spain Segunda Division1876
- 4 OctDAD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda Division1782
- 28 SepWLeganes Spain Segunda Division1881
- 19 SepWTenerife Spain Segunda Division1868
Sporting Gijon
4th in Segunda División · 19 pts from 10
- 17 OctWAlbacete Spain Segunda Division1826
- 11 OctWCadiz Spain Segunda Division1798
- 4 OctWCelta de Vigo II Spain Segunda Division1809
- 27 SepLOviedo Spain Segunda Division1877
- 19 SepWFC Andorra Spain Segunda Division1849
Season outlook
From the Segunda División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 23 /10 | 74.1 | 17% | 63% | 0% | 1st |
| Sporting Gijon | 19 /10 | 68.9 | 5% | 33% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 22nd on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Castellón: dribble-heavy (how Pablo Hernández Domínguez plays) · Sporting Gijon: balanced profile (how Nicolás Ricardo Larcamón plays)