Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 10
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 20:15 UTC
Casa Pia host Sporting CP on Fri 30 Oct 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Casa Pia 10%, draw 17%, Sporting CP 73%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Casa Pia €987K, Sporting CP €14.8M.
- Draw chance 17%, below the Primeira Liga average of 23% this round.
- Primeira Liga: L. Suárez is the highest-rated forward (2402).
- Style contrast in chance creation (Primeira Liga): Casa Pia rank #18 of 18, Sporting CP #1.
- Sporting CP are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Casa Pia goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–29%
- 0–39%
- 1–38%
- 1–18%
- 0–18%
- Other scores47%
Team Elo: Casa Pia 1669 · Sporting CP 2223
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Casa Pia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1687
Sporting CP · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 2293
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Casa Pia
17th in Primeira Liga · 4 pts from 8
- 10 OctLSanta Clara Primeira Liga1664
- 20 SepWEstoril Primeira Liga1630
- 12 SepLFC Porto Primeira Liga1631
- 6 SepDVitória SC Primeira Liga1646
- 30 AugLMoreirense Primeira Liga1654
Sporting CP
3rd in Primeira Liga · 18 pts from 8
- 13 OctWLens UEFA Champions League2247
- 9 OctWSC Braga Primeira Liga2196
- 19 SepDArouca Primeira Liga2274
- 13 SepDFamalicao Primeira Liga2229
- 9 SepWGalatasaray UEFA Champions League2219
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 4 /8 | 31.6 | 0% | 0% | 56% | 18th |
| Sporting CP | 18 /8 | 75.5 | 7% | 100% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Casa Pia: direct · low-volume (how Filipe Emanuel Curto Coelho plays) · Sporting CP: possession-based · creative (how Rui Manuel Gomes Borges plays)