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Serie B · Regular Season - 7

Carrarese 2–1 Modena

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara

Carrarese crestCarrareseTeam 1659
2–1
Full time
HT 1–0
Modena crestModenaTeam 1766

Match story

Carrarese · draw · Modena

Before kick-off: 34% · 29% · 36%

Live chances: Carrarese 100%, draw 0%, Modena 0% at 90+7'1' · 0–0 · Carrarese 34%, draw 29%, Modena 36%2' · 1–0 · Carrarese 60%, draw 24%, Modena 17%3' · 1–0 · Carrarese 60%, draw 24%, Modena 17%4' · 1–0 · Carrarese 60%, draw 24%, Modena 17%5' · 1–0 · Carrarese 60%, draw 24%, Modena 16%6' · 1–0 · Carrarese 60%, draw 24%, Modena 16%7' · 1–0 · Carrarese 60%, draw 24%, Modena 16%8' · 1–0 · Carrarese 60%, draw 24%, Modena 16%9' · 1–0 · Carrarese 60%, draw 24%, Modena 16%10' · 1–0 · Carrarese 60%, draw 24%, Modena 16%11' · 1–0 · Carrarese 60%, draw 24%, Modena 16%12' · 1–0 · Carrarese 61%, draw 24%, Modena 16%13' · 1–0 · Carrarese 61%, draw 24%, Modena 16%14' · 1–0 · Carrarese 61%, draw 24%, Modena 15%15' · 1–0 · Carrarese 61%, draw 24%, Modena 15%16' · 1–0 · Carrarese 61%, draw 24%, Modena 15%17' · 1–0 · Carrarese 61%, draw 24%, Modena 15%18' · 1–0 · Carrarese 61%, draw 24%, Modena 15%19' · 1–0 · Carrarese 61%, draw 24%, Modena 15%20' · 1–0 · Carrarese 61%, draw 24%, Modena 15%21' · 1–0 · Carrarese 62%, draw 24%, Modena 15%22' · 1–0 · Carrarese 62%, draw 24%, Modena 14%23' · 1–0 · Carrarese 62%, draw 24%, Modena 14%24' · 1–0 · Carrarese 62%, draw 24%, Modena 14%25' · 1–0 · Carrarese 62%, draw 24%, Modena 14%26' · 1–0 · Carrarese 62%, draw 24%, Modena 14%27' · 1–0 · Carrarese 62%, draw 24%, Modena 14%28' · 1–0 · Carrarese 62%, draw 24%, Modena 14%29' · 1–0 · Carrarese 63%, draw 24%, Modena 13%30' · 1–0 · Carrarese 63%, draw 24%, Modena 13%31' · 1–0 · Carrarese 63%, draw 24%, Modena 13%32' · 1–0 · Carrarese 63%, draw 24%, Modena 13%33' · 1–0 · Carrarese 63%, draw 24%, Modena 13%34' · 1–0 · Carrarese 63%, draw 24%, Modena 13%35' · 1–0 · Carrarese 63%, draw 24%, Modena 12%36' · 1–0 · Carrarese 64%, draw 24%, Modena 12%37' · 1–0 · Carrarese 64%, draw 24%, Modena 12%38' · 1–0 · Carrarese 64%, draw 24%, Modena 12%39' · 1–0 · Carrarese 64%, draw 24%, Modena 12%40' · 1–0 · Carrarese 64%, draw 24%, Modena 12%41' · 1–0 · Carrarese 64%, draw 24%, Modena 11%42' · 1–0 · Carrarese 65%, draw 24%, Modena 11%43' · 1–0 · Carrarese 65%, draw 24%, Modena 11%44' · 1–0 · Carrarese 65%, draw 24%, Modena 11%45' · 1–0 · Carrarese 65%, draw 24%, Modena 11%45+1' · 1–0 · Carrarese 65%, draw 24%, Modena 11%45+2' · 1–0 · Carrarese 66%, draw 24%, Modena 10%HT · 1–0 · Carrarese 66%, draw 24%, Modena 10%47' · 1–0 · Carrarese 66%, draw 24%, Modena 10%48' · 1–0 · Carrarese 66%, draw 24%, Modena 10%49' · 1–0 · Carrarese 67%, draw 24%, Modena 9%50' · 1–0 · Carrarese 67%, draw 24%, Modena 9%51' · 1–0 · Carrarese 67%, draw 24%, Modena 9%52' · 1–0 · Carrarese 68%, draw 24%, Modena 9%53' · 1–0 · Carrarese 68%, draw 24%, Modena 9%53' · 2–0 · Carrarese 92%, draw 6%, Modena 1%54' · 2–0 · Carrarese 92%, draw 6%, Modena 1%55' · 2–0 · Carrarese 93%, draw 6%, Modena 1%56' · 2–0 · Carrarese 93%, draw 6%, Modena 1%57' · 2–0 · Carrarese 93%, draw 6%, Modena 1%59' · 2–0 · Carrarese 94%, draw 5%, Modena 1%60' · 2–0 · Carrarese 94%, draw 5%, Modena 1%61' · 2–0 · Carrarese 94%, draw 5%, Modena 1%62' · 2–0 · Carrarese 94%, draw 5%, Modena 1%63' · 2–0 · Carrarese 94%, draw 5%, Modena 1%64' · 2–0 · Carrarese 95%, draw 5%, Modena 1%65' · 2–0 · Carrarese 95%, draw 4%, Modena 1%66' · 2–0 · Carrarese 95%, draw 4%, Modena 1%67' · 2–0 · Carrarese 95%, draw 4%, Modena 1%68' · 2–0 · Carrarese 96%, draw 4%, Modena 1%69' · 2–0 · Carrarese 96%, draw 4%, Modena 1%70' · 2–0 · Carrarese 96%, draw 4%, Modena 0%71' · 2–0 · Carrarese 96%, draw 3%, Modena 0%72' · 2–0 · Carrarese 96%, draw 3%, Modena 0%74' · 2–0 · Carrarese 97%, draw 3%, Modena 0%75' · 2–0 · Carrarese 97%, draw 3%, Modena 0%76' · 2–0 · Carrarese 97%, draw 3%, Modena 0%77' · 2–1 · Carrarese 79%, draw 18%, Modena 3%78' · 2–1 · Carrarese 80%, draw 18%, Modena 3%79' · 2–1 · Carrarese 80%, draw 17%, Modena 2%80' · 2–1 · Carrarese 81%, draw 17%, Modena 2%81' · 2–1 · Carrarese 82%, draw 16%, Modena 2%82' · 2–1 · Carrarese 83%, draw 15%, Modena 2%83' · 2–1 · Carrarese 84%, draw 15%, Modena 2%84' · 2–1 · Carrarese 84%, draw 14%, Modena 1%85' · 2–1 · Carrarese 85%, draw 13%, Modena 1%86' · 2–1 · Carrarese 86%, draw 13%, Modena 1%88' · 2–1 · Carrarese 88%, draw 11%, Modena 1%89' · 2–1 · Carrarese 89%, draw 10%, Modena 1%90' · 2–1 · Carrarese 87%, draw 12%, Modena 1%90+1' · 2–1 · Carrarese 89%, draw 11%, Modena 1%90+2' · 2–1 · Carrarese 90%, draw 9%, Modena 0%90+3' · 2–1 · Carrarese 92%, draw 7%, Modena 0%90+4' · 2–1 · Carrarese 94%, draw 5%, Modena 0%90+5' · 2–1 · Carrarese 97%, draw 3%, Modena 0%90+6' · 2–1 · Carrarese 99%, draw 1%, Modena 0%90+7' · 2–1 · Carrarese 100%, draw 0%, Modena 0%

Last reading, 90+7': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Modena 36% to win: Carrarese won.

  1. 1'Carrarese:Fabio abiuso 1698 +32 assist Gabriele parlanti 1767 +25
  2. 25'Carrarese:Fabio Andrea 1712 +13
  3. 28'Carrarese:Jonas Rouhi 1752 +11
  4. 51'Carrarese:Fabio abiuso 1698 +32
  5. 52'Carrarese:Tommaso Rubino 1755 +20 assist Fabio abiuso 1698 +32
  6. 56'Modena:Andrea Belotti 1875 −11 for Gastón Brugman 1797 −7
  7. 56'Modena:Giacomo Olzer 1767 0 for Francesco Zampano 1767 −12*
  8. 56'Modena:Francesco Folino 1658 0 for Steven Nador 1728 0
  9. 61'Carrarese:Jacopo Martini 1346 +13 for Tommaso Rubino 1755 +20
  10. 71'Carrarese:G. Marconi 1501 +6 for Fabio abiuso 1698 +32
  11. 76'Modena:Andrea Belotti 1875 −11 assist Giacomo Olzer 1767 0
  12. 81'Carrarese:T. Guercio 1662 +2 for Niccolò Belloni 1459 +24
  13. 81'Carrarese:Luka Topalovic 1379 +4 for Gabriele parlanti 1767 +25
  14. 85'Modena:Daniele Montevago 1447 0 for Paulo Azzi 1940 −15
  15. 88'Carrarese:Guido Pagliuca
  16. 90'Modena:Giuseppe Caso 1865 −7
  17. 90+1'Modena:Simone Santoro 1775 −1
  18. 90+4'Carrarese:G. Marconi 1501 +6

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-5-2Formations3-5-2
GS. Pizzignacco1762+10
DF. Ruggeri1712+13
DF. Oliana1725+36
DF. Reale1531+70
MN. Belloni1459+24
MG. Parlanti1767+25
MNicolás Schiavi1625+16
MM. Braunöder1726+13
MJ. Rouhi1752+11
FF. Abiuso1698+32
FT. Rubino1755+20
CG. Pagliuca1772+18
GL. Chichizola1833−8
DD. Tonoli1874−6
DS. Nador17280
DB. Nieling1863−17
MF. Zampano1767−12*
MA. Bianco1847−14
MG. Brugman1797−7
MS. Santoro1775−1
MPaulo Azzi1940−15
FG. Caso1865−7
FG. Ambrosino1829−3
CD. Galloppa15860
Before kick-off: 34% · 29% · 36%(Carrarese · draw · Modena)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–1 had 8%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Carrarese €885K, Modena €1.1M.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Carrarese

19th in Serie B · 4 pts from 6

  • 11 OctWPadova 1620
  • 19 SepLBenevento 1609
  • 12 SepLCatanzaro 1589
  • 5 SepLEmpoli 1646
  • 29 AugDAscoli 1638

Modena

3rd in Serie B · 13 pts from 6

  • 11 OctWHellas Verona 1811
  • 20 SepWEmpoli 1794
  • 12 SepDSudtirol 1778
  • 6 SepLAvellino 1789
  • 28 AugWCremonese 1721

Season outlook

From the Serie B simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Carrarese4 /644.40%1%23%17th
Modena13 /661.04%46%<1%3rd
Carrarese
Modena

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie B

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Nicolás Schiavi
Nicolás Schiavi

Carrarese · +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1609

S. Nador
S. Nador

Modena · +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1728

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Guido Pagliuca

Coach DNA: direct

Daniele Galloppa

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Carrarese: balanced profile (how Guido Pagliuca plays) · Modena: balanced profile (how Daniele Galloppa plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.