Serie B · Regular Season - 9
Carrarese vs Arezzo
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara
Carrarese host Arezzo on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Carrarese 51%, draw 26%, Arezzo 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Carrarese €935K, Arezzo €326K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Carrarese goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Carrarese 1668 · Arezzo 1564
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Carrarese · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1625
Arezzo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1718
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Carrarese
13th in Serie B · 7 pts from 7
- 17 OctWModena Italy Serie B1656
- 11 OctWPadova Italy Serie B1620
- 19 SepLBenevento Italy Serie B1609
- 12 SepLCatanzaro Italy Serie B1589
- 5 SepLEmpoli Italy Serie B1646
Arezzo
9th in Serie B · 10 pts from 7
- 18 OctWSampdoria Italy Serie B1470
- 10 OctDCremonese Italy Serie B1462
- 20 SepLSudtirol Italy Serie B1475
- 11 SepWEmpoli Italy Serie B1430
- 6 SepLHellas Verona Italy Serie B1465
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese | 7 /7 | 46.2 | 0% | 3% | 20% | 12th |
| Arezzo | 10 /7 | 44.0 | 0% | 1% | 30% | 19th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: direct