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Championship · Regular Season - 10

Cardiff 5–1 Watford

Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff

Cardiff crestCardiffTeam 1935
5–1
Full time
HT 4–0
Watford crestWatfordTeam 1920

Match story

Cardiff · draw · Watford

Before kick-off: 43% · 28% · 29%

Live chances: Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0% at 90+6'1' · 0–0 · Cardiff 43%, draw 28%, Watford 29%2' · 0–0 · Cardiff 43%, draw 28%, Watford 29%3' · 0–0 · Cardiff 43%, draw 28%, Watford 29%4' · 0–0 · Cardiff 43%, draw 28%, Watford 29%5' · 0–0 · Cardiff 43%, draw 28%, Watford 29%6' · 0–0 · Cardiff 43%, draw 28%, Watford 29%8' · 0–0 · Cardiff 42%, draw 29%, Watford 29%9' · 0–0 · Cardiff 42%, draw 29%, Watford 29%10' · 0–0 · Cardiff 42%, draw 29%, Watford 29%11' · 0–0 · Cardiff 42%, draw 29%, Watford 29%12' · 1–0 · Cardiff 70%, draw 19%, Watford 11%13' · 1–0 · Cardiff 70%, draw 19%, Watford 10%14' · 1–0 · Cardiff 70%, draw 19%, Watford 10%15' · 1–0 · Cardiff 70%, draw 19%, Watford 10%16' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 19%, Watford 10%17' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 19%, Watford 10%18' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 19%, Watford 10%19' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 19%, Watford 10%20' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 19%, Watford 10%21' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 19%, Watford 10%22' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 19%, Watford 10%23' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 19%, Watford 10%24' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 20%, Watford 10%25' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 20%, Watford 9%26' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 20%, Watford 9%27' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 20%, Watford 9%28' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 20%, Watford 9%29' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 20%, Watford 9%30' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 20%, Watford 9%31' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 20%, Watford 9%32' · 1–0 · Cardiff 71%, draw 20%, Watford 9%33' · 1–0 · Cardiff 72%, draw 20%, Watford 9%34' · 1–0 · Cardiff 72%, draw 20%, Watford 9%35' · 1–0 · Cardiff 72%, draw 20%, Watford 8%36' · 2–0 · Cardiff 93%, draw 6%, Watford 2%37' · 2–0 · Cardiff 93%, draw 6%, Watford 1%38' · 2–0 · Cardiff 93%, draw 6%, Watford 1%39' · 2–0 · Cardiff 93%, draw 6%, Watford 1%40' · 2–0 · Cardiff 93%, draw 6%, Watford 1%41' · 3–0 · Cardiff 99%, draw 1%, Watford 0%42' · 3–0 · Cardiff 99%, draw 1%, Watford 0%43' · 3–0 · Cardiff 99%, draw 1%, Watford 0%44' · 3–0 · Cardiff 99%, draw 1%, Watford 0%45' · 3–0 · Cardiff 99%, draw 1%, Watford 0%45+1' · 3–0 · Cardiff 99%, draw 1%, Watford 0%45+2' · 3–0 · Cardiff 99%, draw 1%, Watford 0%45+3' · 3–0 · Cardiff 99%, draw 1%, Watford 0%45+4' · 3–0 · Cardiff 99%, draw 1%, Watford 0%45+5' · 3–0 · Cardiff 99%, draw 1%, Watford 0%45+6' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%HT · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%46' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%47' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%48' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%49' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%50' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%51' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%52' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%53' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%54' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%55' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%56' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%57' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%58' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%59' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%60' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%61' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%62' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%63' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%64' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%65' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%66' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%67' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%68' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%69' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%70' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%71' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%72' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%73' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%74' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%76' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%77' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%78' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%80' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%81' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%82' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%84' · 4–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%85' · 5–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%86' · 5–0 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%87' · 5–1 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%88' · 5–1 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%89' · 5–1 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%90' · 5–1 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%90+1' · 5–1 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%90+2' · 5–1 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%90+3' · 5–1 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%90+4' · 5–1 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%90+5' · 5–1 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%90+6' · 5–1 · Cardiff 100%, draw 0%, Watford 0%

Last reading, 90+6': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Cardiff 43% to win: they did.

  1. 9'Watford:Martin Payero 1914 −1
  2. 11'Cardiff:Jack Moylan 2055 +24 (pen.)
  3. 29'Cardiff:William Fish 2000 +19* for Dylan Lawlor 1974 +14
  4. 35'Cardiff:Jack Moylan 2055 +24 assist C. Ashford 1981 +48
  5. 41'Cardiff:Matthew Pollock 2018 −8 (own goal)
  6. 45+5'Cardiff:Ollie·Tanner 1962 +46 assist Perry Tian Hee Ng 1977 +46
  7. 56'Watford:Mamadou Doumbia 1780 0 for Myron Boadu 1844 0
  8. 56'Watford:Marc Bola 2037 −13* for Jordan Zemura 1982 −3
  9. 56'Watford:Amin Nabizada 1686 0 for Stephy Mavididi 1961 −10*
  10. 65'Cardiff:Christopher Willock 1914 +14 (penalty missed)
  11. 67'Watford:Iker Bravo 1916 0 for Martin Payero 1914 −1
  12. 69'Cardiff:David Turnbull 1938 +4 for Jack Moylan 2055 +24
  13. 69'Cardiff:Calum Scanlon 1325 +16 for Christopher Willock 1914 +14
  14. 69'Watford:Krépin Diatta 2130 −13* for Othmane Maamma 1983 −3
  15. 73'Watford:Edo Kayembe 2008 −8
  16. 82'Cardiff:Callum Robinson 1779 +4 for Ollie·Tanner 1962 +46
  17. 82'Cardiff:Isaak Davies 1775 +3 for Joel Bagan 1972 +39
  18. 85'Cardiff:Callum Robinson 1779 +4 assist David Turnbull 1938 +4
  19. 86'Watford:Amin Nabizada 1686 0
  20. 86'Cardiff:Perry Tian Hee Ng 1977 +46
  21. 87'Watford:Hector Kyprianou 2017 −26 assist Iker Bravo 1916 0
  22. 90+5'Watford:Hector Kyprianou 2017 −26

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GN. Trott1960+17
DP. Ng1977+46
DD. Lawlor1974+14
DG. Osho1993+44
DJ. Bagan1972+39
MA. Robertson1989+46
MCian Ashford1981+48
MO. Tanner1962+46
MJ. Colwill1941+19
MC. Willock1914+14
FJ. Moylan2055+24
CB. Barry-Murphy1951+35
GF. Ravaglia2075−15
DO. Traoré1818−1
DM. Pollock2018−8
DK. Keben1911−8*
DJ. Zemura1982−3
ME. Kayembe2008−8
MH. Kyprianou2017−26
MO. Maamma1983−3
MM. Payero1914−1
MS. Mavididi1961−10*
FM. Boadu18440
CA. Dionisi18210
Before kick-off: 43% · 28% · 29%(Cardiff · draw · Watford)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 5–1 had 1%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Cardiff €1.5M, Watford €3.6M.
  • Cardiff were without 1 expected starter: K. Bielik (1876).
  • Home advantage made Cardiff the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Cardiff

21st in Championship · 7 pts from 9

  • 10 OctLBlackburn 1942
  • 19 SepWCharlton 1916
  • 12 SepLBolton 1927
  • 8 SepDStoke City 1928
  • 5 SepLPortsmouth 1952

Watford

20th in Championship · 8 pts from 9

  • 10 OctLBurnley 1923
  • 18 SepLBristol City 1927
  • 12 SepLStoke City 1976
  • 8 SepWPreston 1900
  • 5 SepLWest Brom 1972

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Cardiff7 /952.50%<1%25%21st
Watford8 /956.40%1%13%19th
Cardiff
Watford

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

A. Robertson
A. Robertson

Cardiff · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1944

H. Kyprianou
H. Kyprianou

Watford · +0.9 (Average) · Elo 2044

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Brian Barry-Murphy

Coach DNA: possession-based

Alessio Dionisi

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Cardiff: balanced profile (how Brian Barry-Murphy plays) · Watford: dribble-heavy (how Alessio Dionisi plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.