Championship · Regular Season - 15
Cardiff vs Burnley
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Cardiff host Burnley on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Championship); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cardiff 35%, draw 29%, Burnley 36%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cardiff €1.5M, Burnley €6.3M.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Championship): Cardiff rank #4 of 24, Burnley #21.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cardiff goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 1–08%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.6 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Cardiff 1927 · Burnley 2017
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cardiff · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1994
Burnley · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1975
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cardiff
19th in Championship · 11 pts from 11
- 17 OctDMiddlesbrough England Championship1956
- 13 OctWWatford England Championship1941
- 10 OctLBlackburn England Championship1942
- 19 SepWCharlton England Championship1916
- 12 SepLBolton England Championship1927
Burnley
22nd in Championship · 8 pts from 11
- 16 OctLWolves England Championship1975
- 13 OctDCharlton England Championship1996
- 10 OctWWatford England Championship2015
- 19 SepDDerby England Championship2027
- 12 SepLSwansea England Championship1963
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 11 /11 | 54.5 | 0% | <1% | 18% | 20th |
| Burnley | 8 /11 | 59.3 | 0% | 2% | 7% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cardiff: balanced profile (how Brian Barry-Murphy plays) · Burnley: balanced profile (how Nicky Hayen plays)