Championship · Regular Season - 12
Cardiff vs Birmingham
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Cardiff host Birmingham on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Championship); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cardiff 32%, draw 29%, Birmingham 39%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cardiff €1.5M, Birmingham €4.8M.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cardiff goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Cardiff 1935 · Birmingham 2055
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cardiff · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1994
Birmingham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2080
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cardiff
19th in Championship · 11 pts from 11
- 17 OctDMiddlesbrough England Championship1956
- 13 OctWWatford England Championship1941
- 10 OctLBlackburn England Championship1942
- 19 SepWCharlton England Championship1916
- 12 SepLBolton England Championship1927
Birmingham
4th in Championship · 20 pts from 11
- 17 OctWQPR England Championship2054
- 13 OctWPreston England Championship2036
- 10 OctWWest Brom England Championship2039
- 19 SepDMiddlesbrough England Championship2049
- 12 SepWDerby England Championship2024
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 11 /11 | 55.1 | 0% | <1% | 16% | 21st |
| Birmingham | 20 /11 | 74.5 | 5% | 42% | <1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cardiff: balanced profile (how Brian Barry-Murphy plays) · Birmingham: possession-based (how Chris Davies plays)