League One · Regular Season - 16
Burton Albion vs Luton
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent
Burton Albion host Luton on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (League One); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Burton Albion 28%, draw 28%, Luton 43%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Burton Albion €439K, Luton €684K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of League One matchday 16: 186 points.
- League One: J. Donley is the highest-rated midfielder (2063).
- Burton Albion's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
- Luton are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Burton Albion goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–27%
- 1–07%
- Other scores47%
Team Elo: Burton Albion 1726 · Luton 1912
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Burton Albion · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1823
Luton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1979
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Burton Albion
15th in League One · 17 pts from 14
- 10 NovLNotts County England EFL Trophy1612
- 31 OctLWycombe England League One1708
- 24 OctWLeyton Orient England League One1746
- 20 OctDBradford England League One1735
- 17 OctDPeterborough England League One1790
Luton
4th in League One · 24 pts from 14
- 7 NovWForest Green England FA Cup1824
- 3 NovDHuddersfield England League One1897
- 31 OctWPeterborough England League One1920
- 27 OctWDoncaster England League One1895
- 24 OctWLeicester England League One1839
Season outlook
From the League One simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion | 17 /14 | 55.7 | 0% | 1% | 9% | 18th |
| Luton | 24 /14 | 77.0 | 18% | 63% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Burton Albion: direct (how G. Bowyer plays) · Luton: balanced profile (how J. Wilshere plays)