League One · Regular Season - 13
Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent
Burton Albion host Leyton Orient on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (League One); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Burton Albion 39%, draw 29%, Leyton Orient 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Burton Albion €475K, Leyton Orient €608K.
- Home advantage makes Burton Albion the favourite here: it adds 7 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Burton Albion goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Burton Albion 1754 · Leyton Orient 1800
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Burton Albion · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1801
Leyton Orient · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1819
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Burton Albion
10th in League One · 13 pts from 11
- 17 OctDPeterborough England League One1799
- 10 OctLDoncaster England League One1816
- 6 OctDGrimsby England EFL Trophy1445
- 3 OctLHuddersfield England League One1838
- 26 SepWPlymouth England League One1806
Leyton Orient
9th in League One · 14 pts from 10
- 17 OctWBlackpool England League One1821
- 10 OctDBradford England League One1801
- 3 OctLPlymouth England League One1780
- 19 SepWStevenage England League One1776
- 15 SepLArsenal U21 England EFL Trophy1784
Season outlook
From the League One simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion | 13 /11 | 57.9 | <1% | 2% | 8% | 15th |
| Leyton Orient | 14 /10 | 62.7 | 1% | 9% | 2% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Burton Albion: direct (how Gary David Bowyer plays) · Leyton Orient: balanced profile (how Richard Paul Wellens plays)