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Championship · Regular Season - 11

Burnley 1–2 Wolves

Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Turf Moor, Burnley

Burnley crestBurnleyTeam 1945
1–2
Full time
HT 1–1
Wolves crestWolvesTeam 2007

Match story

Burnley · draw · Wolves

Before kick-off: 37% · 29% · 34%

Live chances: Burnley 0%, draw 4%, Wolves 96% at 90+4'1' · 0–0 · Burnley 37%, draw 29%, Wolves 34%2' · 0–0 · Burnley 37%, draw 29%, Wolves 34%3' · 0–0 · Burnley 37%, draw 29%, Wolves 34%4' · 0–0 · Burnley 36%, draw 30%, Wolves 34%5' · 0–0 · Burnley 36%, draw 30%, Wolves 34%6' · 0–0 · Burnley 36%, draw 30%, Wolves 34%7' · 0–0 · Burnley 36%, draw 30%, Wolves 34%8' · 0–0 · Burnley 36%, draw 30%, Wolves 34%9' · 0–0 · Burnley 36%, draw 30%, Wolves 34%10' · 0–0 · Burnley 36%, draw 30%, Wolves 34%11' · 0–0 · Burnley 36%, draw 31%, Wolves 33%12' · 0–0 · Burnley 36%, draw 31%, Wolves 33%13' · 0–0 · Burnley 36%, draw 31%, Wolves 33%14' · 0–0 · Burnley 36%, draw 31%, Wolves 33%15' · 0–0 · Burnley 35%, draw 31%, Wolves 33%16' · 0–0 · Burnley 35%, draw 32%, Wolves 33%17' · 0–0 · Burnley 35%, draw 32%, Wolves 33%18' · 0–0 · Burnley 35%, draw 32%, Wolves 33%19' · 0–0 · Burnley 35%, draw 32%, Wolves 33%20' · 0–0 · Burnley 35%, draw 32%, Wolves 33%21' · 1–0 · Burnley 66%, draw 22%, Wolves 12%22' · 1–0 · Burnley 66%, draw 22%, Wolves 12%23' · 1–0 · Burnley 66%, draw 22%, Wolves 12%24' · 1–0 · Burnley 66%, draw 22%, Wolves 12%25' · 1–0 · Burnley 67%, draw 22%, Wolves 11%26' · 1–0 · Burnley 67%, draw 22%, Wolves 11%27' · 1–0 · Burnley 67%, draw 22%, Wolves 11%28' · 1–0 · Burnley 67%, draw 22%, Wolves 11%29' · 1–0 · Burnley 67%, draw 22%, Wolves 11%30' · 1–0 · Burnley 67%, draw 22%, Wolves 11%31' · 1–0 · Burnley 67%, draw 22%, Wolves 11%32' · 1–0 · Burnley 67%, draw 22%, Wolves 11%33' · 1–0 · Burnley 67%, draw 22%, Wolves 10%34' · 1–0 · Burnley 68%, draw 22%, Wolves 10%35' · 1–0 · Burnley 68%, draw 22%, Wolves 10%36' · 1–0 · Burnley 68%, draw 22%, Wolves 10%37' · 1–0 · Burnley 68%, draw 22%, Wolves 10%38' · 1–0 · Burnley 68%, draw 22%, Wolves 10%39' · 1–0 · Burnley 68%, draw 22%, Wolves 10%40' · 1–1 · Burnley 32%, draw 37%, Wolves 30%41' · 1–1 · Burnley 32%, draw 38%, Wolves 30%42' · 1–1 · Burnley 32%, draw 38%, Wolves 30%43' · 1–1 · Burnley 32%, draw 38%, Wolves 30%44' · 1–1 · Burnley 32%, draw 39%, Wolves 30%45' · 1–1 · Burnley 31%, draw 39%, Wolves 30%45+1' · 1–1 · Burnley 31%, draw 39%, Wolves 29%45+2' · 1–1 · Burnley 31%, draw 40%, Wolves 29%HT · 1–1 · Burnley 31%, draw 40%, Wolves 29%46' · 1–1 · Burnley 31%, draw 41%, Wolves 29%47' · 1–1 · Burnley 30%, draw 41%, Wolves 29%48' · 1–1 · Burnley 30%, draw 41%, Wolves 29%49' · 1–1 · Burnley 30%, draw 42%, Wolves 28%50' · 1–1 · Burnley 30%, draw 42%, Wolves 28%51' · 1–1 · Burnley 29%, draw 43%, Wolves 28%52' · 1–1 · Burnley 29%, draw 43%, Wolves 28%53' · 1–1 · Burnley 29%, draw 44%, Wolves 27%54' · 1–1 · Burnley 28%, draw 45%, Wolves 27%55' · 1–1 · Burnley 28%, draw 45%, Wolves 27%56' · 1–1 · Burnley 28%, draw 46%, Wolves 26%57' · 1–1 · Burnley 27%, draw 47%, Wolves 26%58' · 1–1 · Burnley 27%, draw 47%, Wolves 26%59' · 1–1 · Burnley 27%, draw 48%, Wolves 25%60' · 1–1 · Burnley 26%, draw 49%, Wolves 25%61' · 1–1 · Burnley 26%, draw 49%, Wolves 25%62' · 1–1 · Burnley 26%, draw 50%, Wolves 24%63' · 1–1 · Burnley 25%, draw 51%, Wolves 24%64' · 1–1 · Burnley 25%, draw 51%, Wolves 24%65' · 1–1 · Burnley 24%, draw 52%, Wolves 23%66' · 1–1 · Burnley 24%, draw 53%, Wolves 23%67' · 1–1 · Burnley 24%, draw 54%, Wolves 23%68' · 1–1 · Burnley 23%, draw 55%, Wolves 22%69' · 1–1 · Burnley 23%, draw 56%, Wolves 22%70' · 1–1 · Burnley 22%, draw 57%, Wolves 21%71' · 1–1 · Burnley 22%, draw 57%, Wolves 21%72' · 1–1 · Burnley 21%, draw 58%, Wolves 20%73' · 1–2 · Burnley 4%, draw 20%, Wolves 76%74' · 1–2 · Burnley 4%, draw 20%, Wolves 77%75' · 1–2 · Burnley 3%, draw 19%, Wolves 77%76' · 1–2 · Burnley 3%, draw 19%, Wolves 78%77' · 1–2 · Burnley 3%, draw 18%, Wolves 79%78' · 1–2 · Burnley 3%, draw 18%, Wolves 79%79' · 1–2 · Burnley 3%, draw 17%, Wolves 80%80' · 1–2 · Burnley 2%, draw 17%, Wolves 81%81' · 1–2 · Burnley 2%, draw 16%, Wolves 82%82' · 1–2 · Burnley 2%, draw 16%, Wolves 83%83' · 1–2 · Burnley 2%, draw 15%, Wolves 83%84' · 1–2 · Burnley 1%, draw 14%, Wolves 84%85' · 1–2 · Burnley 1%, draw 14%, Wolves 85%86' · 1–2 · Burnley 1%, draw 13%, Wolves 86%87' · 1–2 · Burnley 1%, draw 12%, Wolves 87%88' · 1–2 · Burnley 1%, draw 11%, Wolves 88%89' · 1–2 · Burnley 1%, draw 10%, Wolves 89%90' · 1–2 · Burnley 1%, draw 9%, Wolves 91%90+1' · 1–2 · Burnley 0%, draw 8%, Wolves 92%90+2' · 1–2 · Burnley 0%, draw 7%, Wolves 93%90+3' · 1–2 · Burnley 0%, draw 5%, Wolves 95%90+4' · 1–2 · Burnley 0%, draw 4%, Wolves 96%

Last reading, 90+4': 0% · 4% · 96%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Burnley 37% to win: Wolves won.

  1. 20'Burnley:Jamie Vardy 1612 −14 assist Jacob Bruun Larsen 1975 −1
  2. 39'Wolves:Fer López 2171 +25 assist Sean Neave 1159 +195
  3. 61'Wolves:Mateus Mane 1958 +19 for Jean-Ricner Bellegarde 2065 +10
  4. 61'Burnley:Armando Broja 1920 0 for Jamie Vardy 1612 −14
  5. 61'Burnley:Dastan Satpaev 1663 0 for Jacob Bruun Larsen 1975 −1
  6. 63'Burnley:Reo Hatate 2087 −6
  7. 70'Wolves:Sean Neave 1159 +195
  8. 71'Wolves:Thomas Doyle 2057 +9 for Fer López 2171 +25
  9. 72'Wolves:Tawanda Chirewa 1374 +24* for Sean Neave 1159 +195
  10. 72'Wolves:Tawanda Chirewa 1374 +24* assist Mateus Mane 1958 +19
  11. 75'Burnley:Marcus Edwards 2049 −1 for Reo Hatate 2087 −6
  12. 87'Wolves:Ladislav Krejčí 2074 0 for Ghislain Konan 2047 +47
  13. 87'Wolves:Hugo Bueno 2187 0 for Rafiki Said Ahamada 1920 +24
  14. 87'Burnley:Ugo Raghouber 1862 −8* for Max Alleyne 1976 0
  15. 90'Burnley:Kyle Walker 1849 −9

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GG. Coudert19670
DK. Walker1849−9
DIgor2191−13
DH. Ekdal1888−1
DLucas Pires2100−6
MMax Alleyne19760
MR. Hatate2087−6
ML. Ramazani2045−3
MJ. Laurent1942−3
MJ. Bruun Larsen1975−1
FJ. Vardy1612−14
CN. Hayen2080−9
GJosé Sá2164+9
DJ. Tchatchoua2196+20*
DN. Djiga2122+14
DToti Gomes2145+12
DG. Konan2047+47
MM. Munetsi2131+11
MAndré2175+11
MJ. Bellegarde2065+10
MFer López2171+25
MR. Saïd1920+24
FS. Neave1159+195
CCésar Peixoto2090+29
Before kick-off: 37% · 29% · 34%(Burnley · draw · Wolves)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–2 had 8%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Burnley €5.0M, Wolves €6.7M.
  • Burnley were without 1 expected starter: A. Ahmedhodžić (2102).
  • Wolves were without 1 expected starter: A. Armstrong (2078).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Burnley

21st in Championship · 8 pts from 10

  • 13 OctDCharlton 1996
  • 10 OctWWatford 2015
  • 19 SepDDerby 2027
  • 12 SepLSwansea 1963
  • 8 SepDWrexham 1962

Wolves

10th in Championship · 14 pts from 9

  • 13 OctLBolton 2104
  • 10 OctLMiddlesbrough 2123
  • 20 SepWWest Brom 2119
  • 16 SepLEverton 1849
  • 13 SepWSheffield Utd 2102

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Burnley8 /1061.7<1%3%4%13th
Wolves14 /976.810%56%0%3rd
Burnley
Wolves

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

J. Vardy
J. Vardy

Burnley · +1.3 (Elite) · Elo 1626

José Sá
José Sá

Wolves · +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 2155

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Nicky Hayen

Coach DNA: possession-based · creative

Paulo César da Silva Peixoto

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Burnley: balanced profile (how Nicky Hayen plays) · Wolves: balanced profile (how Paulo César da Silva Peixoto plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.