Segunda División · Regular Season - 10
Burgos 1–0 Sabadell
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Municipal El Plantio, Burgos
BurgosTeam 1792SabadellTeam 1619- Curro 63' (pen)
We gave Burgos 59% to win: they did.
- Alejandro Lizancos Saldaña –4'Burgos:Alejandro Lizancos Saldaña –
- Grego Sierra –13'Burgos:Grego Sierra –
- 29'Óscar Sanz –Sabadell:Óscar Sanz –
- Sergio Francisco Ramos32'Burgos:Sergio Francisco Ramos
- Curro – for David Gonzalez –34'Burgos:Curro – for David Gonzalez –
- Alberto Dadie – for Kevin Appin –45'Burgos:Alberto Dadie – for Kevin Appin –
- Curro – (pen.)63'Burgos:Curro – (pen.)
- 64'Eneko Aguilar – for Pere Pons –Sabadell:Eneko Aguilar – for Pere Pons –
- 64'Yanis Rahmani – for Ton Ripoll –Sabadell:Yanis Rahmani – for Ton Ripoll –
- 64'Gastón Joaquín Valles Velázquez – for José Luis Català –Sabadell:Gastón Joaquín Valles Velázquez – for José Luis Català –
- Álex Forés – for Jon Karrikaburu –75'Burgos:Álex Forés – for Jon Karrikaburu –
- Victor Mollejo – for Javier Llabrés Exposito –76'Burgos:Victor Mollejo – for Javier Llabrés Exposito –
- 78'Alain Ribeiro – for Joel Priego –Sabadell:Alain Ribeiro – for Joel Priego –
- 78'Nikolay Obolskiy – for Quadri Liameed –Sabadell:Nikolay Obolskiy – for Quadri Liameed –
- José Gragera – for Pablo Galdames –79'Burgos:José Gragera – for Pablo Galdames –
Before kick-off (provisional): 59% · 24% · 17%(Burgos · draw · Sabadell)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 1–0 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Burgos €1.0M, Sabadell €378K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Burgos
8th in Segunda División · 14 pts from 9
- 12 OctLGranada CF Spain Segunda Division1811
- 3 OctLAlmeria Spain Segunda Division1787
- 27 SepWEldense Spain Segunda Division1836
- 20 SepWLas Palmas Spain Segunda Division1763
- 11 SepWAD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda Division1771
Sabadell
6th in Segunda División · 16 pts from 9
- 10 OctWAD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda Division1500
- 26 SepDCelta de Vigo II Spain Segunda Division1565
- 20 SepWOviedo Spain Segunda Division1452
- 13 SepLMallorca Spain Segunda Division1485
- 7 SepWCordoba Spain Segunda Division1383
Season outlook
From the Segunda División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 14 /9 | 61.5 | 1% | 9% | <1% | 8th |
| Sabadell | 16 /9 | 52.0 | 0% | 1% | 9% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 22nd on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Burgos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1817
Sabadell · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1731
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –