Segunda División · Regular Season - 12
Burgos vs Castellón
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC
Burgos host Castellón on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Segunda División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Burgos 39%, draw 29%, Castellón 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Burgos €1.0M, Castellón €981K.
- Home advantage makes Burgos the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Segunda División): Burgos rank #21 of 23, Castellón #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Burgos goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Burgos 1797 · Castellón 1864
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Burgos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1835
Castellón · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 1951
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Burgos
8th in Segunda División · 17 pts from 10
- 18 OctWSabadell Spain Segunda Division1804
- 12 OctLGranada CF Spain Segunda Division1811
- 3 OctLAlmeria Spain Segunda Division1787
- 27 SepWEldense Spain Segunda Division1836
- 20 SepWLas Palmas Spain Segunda Division1763
Castellón
2nd in Segunda División · 23 pts from 10
- 17 OctWLas Palmas Spain Segunda Division1853
- 11 OctLFC Andorra Spain Segunda Division1876
- 4 OctDAD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda Division1782
- 28 SepWLeganes Spain Segunda Division1881
- 19 SepWTenerife Spain Segunda Division1868
Season outlook
From the Segunda División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 17 /10 | 62.3 | 1% | 10% | <1% | 9th |
| Castellón | 23 /10 | 74.1 | 17% | 63% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 22nd on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Burgos: balanced profile (how Sergio Francisco Ramos plays) · Castellón: dribble-heavy (how Pablo Hernández Domínguez plays)