Primera A · Clausura - 19
Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC
Thu 12 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC
Bucaramanga host Fortaleza FC on Thu 12 Nov 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bucaramanga 67%, draw 20%, Fortaleza FC 13%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bucaramanga €470K, Fortaleza FC €246K.
- Draw chance 20%, below the Primera A average of 26% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bucaramanga goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Bucaramanga 1733 · Fortaleza FC 1494
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bucaramanga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1811
Fortaleza FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1698
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bucaramanga
13th in Primera A · 23 pts from 19
- 27 OctLSanta Fe Colombia Primera A1735
- 23 OctLChico Colombia Primera A1736
- 18 OctDAmerica de Cali Colombia Primera A1753
- 13 OctDÁguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A1764
- 4 OctWJunior Colombia Primera A1745
Fortaleza FC
15th in Primera A · 22 pts from 19
- 25 OctDDeportivo Cali Colombia Primera A1498
- 20 OctLInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1475
- 9 OctDMillonarios Colombia Primera A1485
- 4 OctDDeportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A1460
- 27 SepDDeportes Tolima Colombia Primera A1466
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucaramanga | 23 /19 | 30.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13th |
| Fortaleza FC | 22 /19 | 25.0 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bucaramanga: balanced profile (how P. Peirano plays) · Fortaleza FC: balanced profile (how Diego Arias plays)