Primera A · Clausura - 17
Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 01:15 UTC
Bucaramanga host Atletico Nacional on Tue 3 Nov 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bucaramanga 43%, draw 28%, Atletico Nacional 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bucaramanga €466K, Atletico Nacional €780K.
- Home advantage makes Bucaramanga the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance.
- Primera A: C. Fiermarín is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1859).
- Primera A: J. Zapata is the highest-rated midfielder (1876).
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Primera A): Bucaramanga rank #3 of 22, Atletico Nacional #22.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bucaramanga goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Bucaramanga 1755 · Atletico Nacional 1807
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bucaramanga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1842
Atletico Nacional · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1850
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bucaramanga
13th in Primera A · 23 pts from 19
- 18 OctDAmerica de Cali Colombia Primera A1753
- 13 OctDÁguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A1764
- 4 OctWJunior Colombia Primera A1745
- 26 SepWOnce Caldas Colombia Primera A1710
- 20 SepWInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1696
Atletico Nacional
1st in Primera A · 40 pts from 19
- 17 OctWChico Colombia Primera A1776
- 8 OctDDeportes Tolima Colombia Primera A1781
- 1 OctWJunior Colombia Primera A1757
- 25 SepDMillonarios Colombia Primera A1795
- 21 SepLLlaneros Colombia Primera A1788
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucaramanga | 23 /19 | 33.3 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 11th |
| Atletico Nacional | 40 /19 | 53.2 | 98% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bucaramanga: balanced profile (how Pablo Peirano Pardeiro plays) · Atletico Nacional: creative · shot-heavy (how Lucas Fidolo González Vélez plays)