League Two · Regular Season - 15
Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Memorial Stadium, Bristol
Bristol Rovers host Chesterfield on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bristol Rovers 36%, draw 29%, Chesterfield 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bristol Rovers €276K, Chesterfield €391K.
- Home advantage makes Bristol Rovers the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Bristol Rovers' expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bristol Rovers goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Bristol Rovers 1677 · Chesterfield 1736
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bristol Rovers · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1620
Chesterfield · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1776
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bristol Rovers
15th in League Two · 16 pts from 13
- 24 OctDSwindon Town England League Two1701
- 20 OctLSalford City England League Two1715
- 17 OctLShrewsbury England League Two1701
- 10 OctLBarnet England League Two1728
- 6 OctLWycombe England EFL Trophy1791
Chesterfield
7th in League Two · 19 pts from 13
- 24 OctWCrewe England League Two1649
- 20 OctDColchester England League Two1750
- 17 OctLPort Vale England League Two1762
- 10 OctDCrawley Town England League Two1766
- 3 OctWTranmere England League Two1756
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers | 16 /13 | 63.3 | <1% | 12% | 4% | 8th |
| Chesterfield | 19 /13 | 70.8 | 3% | 45% | <1% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bristol Rovers: balanced profile (how Stephen Evans plays) · Chesterfield: possession-based · low-block (how P. Cook plays)