League Two · Regular Season - 10
Bristol Rovers 1–3 Barnet
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Memorial Stadium, Bristol
Bristol RoversTeam 1691BarnetTeam 1667- Adam Senior 79'
- Zac Williams 86'
- Kabongo Tshimanga 90+5'
We gave Bristol Rovers 43% to win: Barnet won.
- Ellis Harrison 1682 −184'Bristol Rovers:Ellis Harrison 1682 −18
- Shaqai Forde 1735 −1029'Bristol Rovers:Shaqai Forde 1735 −10
- 31'Idris Kanu 1777 +17Barnet:Idris Kanu 1777 +17
- 59'Nikola Tavares 1788 −2* for Romoney Crichlow-Noble 1828 +10Barnet:Nikola Tavares 1788 −2* for Romoney Crichlow-Noble 1828 +10
- 59'Brandon Comley 1685 −1* for Jake Reeves 1508 +19*Barnet:Brandon Comley 1685 −1* for Jake Reeves 1508 +19*
- 59'Damola Ajayi 1347 +65 for Tom Knowles 1638 +22Barnet:Damola Ajayi 1347 +65 for Tom Knowles 1638 +22
- Ben Purrington 1718 −1065'Bristol Rovers:Ben Purrington 1718 −10
- Steve Evans65'Bristol Rovers:Steve Evans
- 73'J Maskell 1500 +9 for Idris Kanu 1777 +17Barnet:J Maskell 1500 +9 for Idris Kanu 1777 +17
- 79'Adam Senior 1870 +39 assist Kabongo Tshimanga 1842 +36*Barnet:Adam Senior 1870 +39 assist Kabongo Tshimanga 1842 +36*
- Tommy Leigh 1787 −1485'Bristol Rovers:Tommy Leigh 1787 −14
- 86'Zac Williams 1730 +85Barnet:Zac Williams 1730 +85
- Joe Quigley 1592 −2 for Ellis Harrison 1682 −1888'Bristol Rovers:Joe Quigley 1592 −2 for Ellis Harrison 1682 −18
- 90+2'Myles Kenlock 1579 −1 for Charlie Lakin 1785 +13*Barnet:Myles Kenlock 1579 −1 for Charlie Lakin 1785 +13*
- 90+5'Daniele Collinge 1769 +13*Barnet:Daniele Collinge 1769 +13*
- 90+5'Kabongo Tshimanga 1842 +36* assist Damola Ajayi 1347 +65Barnet:Kabongo Tshimanga 1842 +36* assist Damola Ajayi 1347 +65
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 43% · 28% · 29%(Bristol Rovers · draw · Barnet)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–3 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Bristol Rovers €330K, Barnet €281K.
- Style contrast in attacking (League Two): Bristol Rovers ranked #23 of 24, Barnet #2.
- Barnet were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bristol Rovers
5th in League Two · 15 pts from 9
- 6 OctLWycombe England EFL Trophy1791
- 3 OctLCrewe England League Two1673
- 26 SepWExeter City England League Two1730
- 19 SepLGillingham England League Two1724
- 12 SepLGrimsby England League Two1752
Barnet
2nd in League Two · 15 pts from 7
- 6 OctDAFC Wimbledon England EFL Trophy1544
- 19 SepWFleetwood Town England League Two1695
- 12 SepWAccrington ST England League Two1678
- 5 SepDChesterfield England League Two1683
- 29 AugDCheltenham England League Two1697
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers | 15 /9 | 71.8 | 9% | 46% | <1% | 2nd |
| Barnet | 15 /7 | 70.9 | 7% | 44% | <1% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bristol Rovers · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1802
Barnet · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1772
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bristol Rovers: balanced profile (how Stephen Evans plays) · Barnet: balanced profile (how Dean Brennan plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.