Premier League · Regular Season - 7
Brighton 5–0 Crystal Palace
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · American Express Stadium, Falmer
BrightonTeam 2377Crystal PalaceTeam 2268Match story
Brighton · draw · Crystal PalaceBefore kick-off: 51% · 25% · 23%
Last reading, 90+5': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Jaydee Canvot 4' (og)
- Diego Gomez 7'
- Yasin Ayari 10'
- Charalampos Kostoulas 49'
- Jack Hinshelwood 84'
We gave Brighton 51% to win: they did.
- Jaydee Canvot 2208 −11 (own goal)4'Brighton:Jaydee Canvot 2208 −11 (own goal)
- Diego Gomez 2473 +30 assist Olivier Boscagli 2449 +287'Brighton:Diego Gomez 2473 +30 assist Olivier Boscagli 2449 +28
- Yasin Ayari 2497 +24 assist Charalampos Kostoulas 2308 +3810'Brighton:Yasin Ayari 2497 +24 assist Charalampos Kostoulas 2308 +38
- Pascal Groß 2415 +229'Brighton:Pascal Groß 2415 +2
- 45'Dwight McNeil 2205 −5 for Quinten Timber 2205 −5Crystal Palace:Dwight McNeil 2205 −5 for Quinten Timber 2205 −5
- Charalampos Kostoulas 2308 +3849'Brighton:Charalampos Kostoulas 2308 +38
- 51'Daichi Kamada 2247 −15Crystal Palace:Daichi Kamada 2247 −15
- 53'Jefferson Lerma 2232 −9 for Honest Ahanor 2135 −2Crystal Palace:Jefferson Lerma 2232 −9 for Honest Ahanor 2135 −2
- 61'Jean-Philippe Mateta 2222 −13* for Jörgen Strand Larsen 2172 −5Crystal Palace:Jean-Philippe Mateta 2222 −13* for Jörgen Strand Larsen 2172 −5
- 61'Eddie Nketiah 2261 −5 for Yeremy Pino 2286 −12Crystal Palace:Eddie Nketiah 2261 −5 for Yeremy Pino 2286 −12
- Chema Andrés 2254 +2064'Brighton:Chema Andrés 2254 +20
- Jack Hinshelwood 2354 +9 for Pascal Groß 2415 +271'Brighton:Jack Hinshelwood 2354 +9 for Pascal Groß 2415 +2
- Georginio Rutter 2326 +3 for Charalampos Kostoulas 2308 +3871'Brighton:Georginio Rutter 2326 +3 for Charalampos Kostoulas 2308 +38
- 81'Will Hughes 2121 −11* for Daichi Kamada 2247 −15Crystal Palace:Will Hughes 2121 −11* for Daichi Kamada 2247 −15
- Jaouen Hadjam 1981 +8 for Olivier Boscagli 2449 +2881'Brighton:Jaouen Hadjam 1981 +8 for Olivier Boscagli 2449 +28
- Malick Yalcouyé 2038 +6 for Yasin Ayari 2497 +2481'Brighton:Malick Yalcouyé 2038 +6 for Yasin Ayari 2497 +24
- Jack Hinshelwood 2354 +984'Brighton:Jack Hinshelwood 2354 +9
- Michael Svoboda 2027 0 for Lewis Dunk 2305 +4290'Brighton:Michael Svoboda 2027 0 for Lewis Dunk 2305 +42
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 51% · 25% · 23%(Brighton · draw · Crystal Palace)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 5–0 had 1%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Brighton €27.8M, Crystal Palace €24.5M.
- Brighton had won their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Brighton
3rd in Premier League · 13 pts from 6
- 15 OctWKauno Žalgiris UEFA Conference League2254
- 10 OctWSunderland Premier League2384
- 19 SepWArsenal Premier League2309
- 16 SepWManchester United England League Cup2153
- 13 SepWCoventry Premier League2237
Crystal Palace
13th in Premier League · 7 pts from 6
- 15 OctLLyon UEFA Europa League2267
- 11 OctWNottingham Forest Premier League2238
- 20 SepDLeeds Premier League2240
- 17 SepWLech Poznan UEFA Europa League2237
- 12 SepLIpswich Premier League2244
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 13 /6 | 60.2 | <1% | 41% | <1% | 3rd |
| Crystal Palace | 7 /6 | 47.1 | 0% | 2% | 8% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Brighton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2510
Crystal Palace · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2280
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Brighton: balanced profile (how Fabian Hürzeler plays) · Crystal Palace: balanced profile (how Pierre Sage plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.