Úrvalsdeild · Championship Group - 3
Breidablik 3–1 Keflavik
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 19:15 UTC
BreidablikTeam 1448KeflavikTeam 1217- V. Einarsson 18'
- J. Arnarsson 69'
- H. Gunnlaugsson 90+1'
- E. Ragnarsson 76'
We gave Breidablik 60% to win: they did.
- V. Einarsson – assist O. Omarsson –18'Breidablik:V. Einarsson – assist O. Omarsson –
- 46'A. Magnusson – for S. Magnusson –Keflavik:A. Magnusson – for S. Magnusson –
- 46'N. Heras – for E. Karlsson –Keflavik:N. Heras – for E. Karlsson –
- J. Arnarsson – assist H. Gunnlaugsson –69'Breidablik:J. Arnarsson – assist H. Gunnlaugsson –
- D. Ingvarsson – for K. Steindorsson –70'Breidablik:D. Ingvarsson – for K. Steindorsson –
- B. Thorsteinsson – for J. Arnarsson –70'Breidablik:B. Thorsteinsson – for J. Arnarsson –
- 76'E. Ragnarsson – assist A. Conteh –Keflavik:E. Ragnarsson – assist A. Conteh –
- A. Gunnleifsson – for T. Ulfarsson –83'Breidablik:A. Gunnleifsson – for T. Ulfarsson –
- D. Fjeldsted – for I. Arnason –83'Breidablik:D. Fjeldsted – for I. Arnason –
- 83'B. L. Brynjarsson – for V. A. Traustason –Keflavik:B. L. Brynjarsson – for V. A. Traustason –
- 83'A. Adalbjorssnos – for M. Simicic –Keflavik:A. Adalbjorssnos – for M. Simicic –
- 88'R. Holmarsson – for A. Conteh –Keflavik:R. Holmarsson – for A. Conteh –
- G. Hallsson – for V. Einarsson –90'Breidablik:G. Hallsson – for V. Einarsson –
- H. Gunnlaugsson –90+1'Breidablik:H. Gunnlaugsson –
Before kick-off (provisional): 60% · 23% · 16%(Breidablik · draw · Keflavik)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 3–1 had 7%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Breidablik €226K, Keflavik €116K.
- A. Bjarnason and K. Kristinsson (Breidablik) had not played for over 90 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Breidablik
4th in Úrvalsdeild · 30 pts from 22
- 13 JulWKeflavik Iceland Urvalsdeild1439
- 29 MayLFram Reykjavik Iceland Urvalsdeild1481
- 22 MayWKR Reykjavik Iceland Urvalsdeild1469
- 17 MayLValur Reykjavik Iceland Urvalsdeild1477
- 8 MayDFH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Urvalsdeild1480
Keflavik
6th in Úrvalsdeild · 28 pts from 22
- 13 JulLBreidablik Iceland Urvalsdeild1190
- 31 MayLIBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Urvalsdeild1233
- 22 MayWThor Akureyri Iceland Urvalsdeild1229
- 17 MayDStjarnan Iceland Urvalsdeild1216
- 8 MayWIA Akranes Iceland Urvalsdeild1192
Season outlook
From the Úrvalsdeild simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breidablik | 30 /22 | 34.5 | 0% | 64% | 0% | 4th |
| Keflavik | 28 /22 | 30.8 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Breidablik · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1547
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –