Premier League · Regular Season - 9
Bournemouth vs Leeds
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Bournemouth host Leeds on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bournemouth 36%, draw 29%, Leeds 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bournemouth €24.5M, Leeds €19.8M.
- Home advantage makes Bournemouth the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in discipline (Premier League): Bournemouth rank #20 of 20, Leeds #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bournemouth goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.6 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Bournemouth 2237 · Leeds 2301
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bournemouth · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2387
Leeds · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2404
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bournemouth
15th in Premier League · 6 pts from 7
- 18 OctWSunderland Premier League2266
- 15 OctWSturm Graz UEFA Europa League2185
- 10 OctLChelsea Premier League2269
- 20 SepLLiverpool Premier League2299
- 17 SepWReal Sociedad UEFA Europa League2289
Leeds
7th in Premier League · 10 pts from 7
- 18 OctDManchester United Premier League2338
- 10 OctLArsenal Premier League2344
- 20 SepDCrystal Palace Premier League2333
- 14 SepWNewcastle Premier League2287
- 9 SepLChelsea England League Cup2231
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 6 /7 | 44.5 | 0% | 1% | 13% | 14th |
| Leeds | 10 /7 | 53.3 | 0% | 9% | 1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bournemouth: balanced profile (how Marco Rose plays) · Leeds: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Daniel Farke plays)