EFL Cup · Round of 16
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
BournemouthTeam 2294Aston VillaTeam 2373Bournemouth host Aston Villa on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (EFL Cup); on the confirmed line-ups our model gives Bournemouth 52%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 23%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Bournemouth €17.9M, Aston Villa €17.9M.
- Home advantage makes Bournemouth the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Premier League): Bournemouth rank #2 of 20, Aston Villa #19.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Prediction — confirmed line-ups
Provisional, from both squads' Elo: 38% · 29% · 33%
Most likely scores
On the confirmed line-ups. Bournemouth goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores47%
Confirmed line-ups
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bournemouth · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2397
Aston Villa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Elite) · Elo 2303
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bournemouth
13th in Premier League · 9 pts from 8
- 25 OctWManchester United Premier League2311
- 22 OctWAC Milan UEFA Europa League2282
- 18 OctWSunderland Premier League2266
- 15 OctWSturm Graz UEFA Europa League2185
- 10 OctLChelsea Premier League2269
Aston Villa
9th in Premier League · 11 pts from 8
- 24 OctWManchester City Premier League2375
- 21 OctWViking UEFA Champions League2298
- 17 OctWNewcastle Premier League2328
- 14 OctWFenerbahçe UEFA Champions League2325
- 10 OctDBrentford Premier League2394
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bournemouth: balanced profile (how Marco Rose plays) · Aston Villa: low-block (how Unai Emery plays)