First League · Regular Season - 13
Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 17:15 UTC · Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv host Dunav Ruse on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Botev Plovdiv 64%, draw 22%, Dunav Ruse 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Botev Plovdiv €409K, Dunav Ruse €163K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of First League matchday 13: 271 points.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Botev Plovdiv goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Botev Plovdiv 1557 · Dunav Ruse 1286
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Botev Plovdiv · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1721
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Botev Plovdiv
5th in First League · 22 pts from 13
- 30 OctWLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1535
- 23 OctLCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1560
- 10 OctWSlavia Sofia Bulgarian First League1550
- 19 SepWSeptemvri Sofia Bulgarian First League1520
- 13 SepWLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1526
Dunav Ruse
9th in First League · 11 pts from 13
- 31 OctLLevski Sofia Bulgarian First League1297
- 24 OctWSpartak Varna Bulgarian First League1246
- 11 OctWSeptemvri Sofia Bulgarian First League1186
- 19 SepDBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1192
- 12 SepLCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1180
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv | 22 /13 | 41.5 | 0% | 10% | 0% | 5th |
| Dunav Ruse | 11 /13 | 22.3 | 0% | 0% | 61% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –