First League · Regular Season - 15
Botev Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv host CSKA Sofia on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Botev Plovdiv 22%, draw 26%, CSKA Sofia 51%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Botev Plovdiv €412K, CSKA Sofia €1.4M.
- First League: F. Lapoukhov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1918).
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (First League): Botev Plovdiv rank #15 of 16, CSKA Sofia #4.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Botev Plovdiv goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–111%
- 1–29%
- 0–29%
- 0–08%
- 1–07%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Botev Plovdiv 1546 · CSKA Sofia 1815
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Botev Plovdiv · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1702
CSKA Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1918
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Botev Plovdiv
5th in First League · 23 pts from 14
- 6 NovDDunav Ruse Bulgarian First League1560
- 30 OctWLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1525
- 23 OctLCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1543
- 10 OctWSlavia Sofia Bulgarian First League1536
- 19 SepWSeptemvri Sofia Bulgarian First League1512
CSKA Sofia
1st in First League · 34 pts from 14
- 8 NovWLevski Sofia Bulgarian First League1808
- 5 NovLPanathinaikos UEFA Conference League1791
- 31 OctDSlavia Sofia Bulgarian First League1839
- 26 OctWLudogorets Bulgarian First League1822
- 22 OctDFC Nordsjaelland UEFA Conference League1808
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv | 23 /14 | 40.1 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 5th |
| CSKA Sofia | 34 /14 | 58.8 | 53% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Botev Plovdiv: balanced profile (how S. Genchev plays) · CSKA Sofia: creative · shot-heavy (how Markus Gisdol plays)