Serie A · Regular Season - 29
Botafogo 1–2 Vasco DA Gama
Wed 7 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
BotafogoTeam 1900Vasco DA GamaTeam 2014We gave Botafogo 39% to win: Vasco DA Gama won.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 39% · 29% · 32%(Botafogo · draw · Vasco DA Gama)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–2 had 8%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Botafogo €3.6M, Vasco DA Gama €3.3M.
- Vasco DA Gama were without 1 expected starter: A. Gómez (2084).
- Home advantage made Botafogo the favourite: it added 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Botafogo
12th in Série A · 35 pts from 28
- 19 SepLMirassol Brazil Serie A1938
- 16 SepWGremio Brazil Serie A1879
- 12 SepDRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A1890
- 6 SepDPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1883
- 30 AugLFlamengo Brazil Serie A1880
Vasco DA Gama
16th in Série A · 31 pts from 27
- 19 SepWCoritiba Brazil Serie A1995
- 15 SepWSanta Fe Copa Sudamericana1928
- 12 SepWGremio Brazil Serie A1975
- 8 SepDSanta Fe Copa Sudamericana1924
- 6 SepLFluminense Brazil Serie A1977
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 35 /28 | 49.2 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 10th |
| Vasco DA Gama | 31 /27 | 45.9 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Botafogo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1967
Vasco DA Gama · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1990
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Botafogo: balanced profile (how Adenor Leonardo Bacchi plays) · Vasco DA Gama: balanced profile (how Pedro Emanuel dos Santos Martins Silva plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.