Serie A · Regular Season - 36
Botafogo vs Sao Paulo
Mon 23 Nov 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Botafogo host Sao Paulo on Mon 23 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Botafogo 47%, draw 28%, Sao Paulo 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Botafogo €3.4M, Sao Paulo €2.4M.
- Home advantage makes Botafogo the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Botafogo goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–012%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–18%
- Other scores40%
Team Elo: Botafogo 1848 · Sao Paulo 1860
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Botafogo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Good) · Elo 1950
Sao Paulo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1878
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Botafogo
11th in Série A · 42 pts from 34
- 5 NovWAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1777
- 29 OctLRemo Brazil Serie A1863
- 24 OctLInternacional Brazil Serie A1869
- 17 OctWChapecoense-SC Brazil Serie A1844
- 12 OctDCoritiba Brazil Serie A1881
Sao Paulo
10th in Série A · 44 pts from 34
- 5 NovDCorinthians Brazil Serie A1877
- 29 OctLBahia Brazil Serie A1909
- 24 OctDMirassol Brazil Serie A1875
- 18 OctWVasco Da Gama Brazil Serie A1892
- 11 OctWVitoria Brazil Serie A1851
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 42 /34 | 47.1 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 12th |
| Sao Paulo | 44 /34 | 49.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Botafogo: balanced profile (how Tite plays) · Sao Paulo: possession-based (how Dorival Júnior plays)